Bangladesh courts China even as ties with India improve

Bangladesh’s new government is seeking more Chinese investment and partnerships to revive the stuttering economy, even as it tries to rebalance ties with neighboring India.

Last month, Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman signaled the direction of Dhaka’s foreign policy by visiting Malaysia and China on his first official visit abroad.

Analysts say the choice of destination reflects Dhaka’s effort to recalibrate its strategic priorities. Rahman’s visit to China, when he first visited Malaysia, appears to be more significant.

India has historically been the traditional port of call for newly elected South Asian leaders. Some in India saw Rahman’s visit to China as a message to Delhi, which maintains close ties with ousted Bangladeshi leader Sheikh Hasina.

Among the various bilateral agreements, Rahman’s outreach to Beijing for assistance in managing the Teesta River and the agreement to develop a special economic zone near Mongla port attracted particular attention.

As two Asian giants vie for influence in Bangladesh, they are being closely watched in Delhi.

Relations between Dhaka and Delhi began to freeze after prime minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted in a mass uprising in August 2024. He fled the country and took refuge in Delhi.

Diplomatic relations remained tense after the interim government led by Mohammed Younis took office, with India avoiding high-level visits.

After Rahman took over following the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) landslide victory in February, both parties made attempts to reset their ties.

“There is no doubt that there has been a relative relief in tensions between the two countries,” former Indian foreign minister Shyam Saran told the BBC. he said.

“Cross-border economic activities are slowly returning to normal and India is also issuing tourist visas to Bangladeshis,” he said.

Passenger bus services between India and Bangladesh have partially resumed after an 18-month break. Services now operate between Kolkata and Dhaka and between Dhaka and Agartala.

When war in the Middle East broke out earlier this year, disrupting global fuel supplies, Delhi sent thousands of tonnes of emergency fuel to Bangladesh through the cross-border Friendship Pipeline.

Last month, India’s new High Commissioner in Dhaka, Dinesh Trivedi, took over. In a rare move, Delhi signaled its intention to reset bilateral ties by elevating him to cabinet rank.

Despite diplomatic tensions and the two countries imposing tit-for-tat restrictions on trade while the interim government was in power, bilateral trade last year amounted to around £13 billion, mostly in India’s favour.

However, the rapprochement between Dhaka and Delhi is not as expected and unrest continues in bilateral relations.

Strong anti-India sentiment and initiatives by the Indian Border Security Force, especially in support of Hasina pushing peopleThe entry into Bangladesh of what they consider illegal immigrants has sparked controversy and anger in Dhaka.

Bangladeshi officials say India has sent back thousands of people, mostly Bengali-speaking Muslims, in recent years without following any repatriation process.

Bangladeshi analysts also point out that provocative comments against Bangladesh by Hindu nationalist politicians during India’s West Bengal state elections sent mixed signals to Dhaka.

“All this gained high visibility in Bangladesh and created public dissatisfaction, which in a way reflected in Dhaka’s thought process,” says Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladeshi diplomat.

“The Bangladesh government has not looked at these issues or positive indicators,” he adds.

In May, the Hindu nationalist BJP ousted the regional Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, ending its nearly 16-year rule in the state bordering Bangladesh. West Bengal and Bangladesh share linguistic, cultural and ethnic ties.

Any role by China in managing the Teesta River is a sensitive security issue for India.

The river is shared by India and Bangladesh, whose efforts to reach a water-sharing agreement have stalled for years. During Rahman’s visit to Beijing, Bangladesh said the two sides agreed to conduct a joint technical feasibility study on the management of the river.

Experts say the river needs dredging, desilting and measures to restore its flow for agricultural purposes.

“China’s involvement in any project close to our border will always be a matter of concern. So we definitely do not welcome it,” says Saran.

India and China have a decades-old border dispute. A brief war in 1962 resulted in a humiliating defeat for India, and more recent border clashes have resulted in loss of life on both sides.

Any role for China in the project would bring it closer to the strategically vital Siliguri Corridor, or “Chicken’s Neck”, the 22 km (14 mi) strip connecting mainland India to seven states in the north-east.

Bangladeshi officials said previous governments had also invited India to join the Teesta project, but Delhi took too long to decide. They argue that China has the expertise and financial resources to implement a project of this scale.

Beijing stepped in to address India’s concerns.

“I would like to emphasize that China-Bangladesh cooperation is not aimed at any third party and should be free from the influence of third parties,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told reporters in Beijing during Rahman’s recent visit. he said.

China is currently Bangladesh’s largest defense supplier, accounting for more than 70% of its arms imports. Dhaka also owes Beijing more than $6bn (£4.5bn).

During Rahman’s visit, China also offered to develop the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor connecting China’s Yunnan province to the two countries.

India has long considered South Asia as its sphere of influence but has been steadily expanding its footprint in China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

India’s efforts to rebuild ties with Bangladesh’s new government are complicated by the continued presence in Delhi of deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina, whose extradition is sought by Dhaka.

Hasina was convicted in absentia of crimes against humanity for the crackdown on student-led protests that left hundreds dead. He denied the charges and was sentenced to death by a special court last year.

“As long as Hasina is in Delhi, it might be a bit difficult politically for Rahman to come to India,” says Saran.

But some experts say Rahman may still visit Delhi as India remains an economically and strategically important neighbor that Dhaka cannot ignore.

India, too, recognizes that stable ties with Bangladesh are vital to the security of its northeastern region, where many ethnic separatist groups operate.

Balancing Dhaka’s ties with the two regional powers will be a delicate diplomatic balancing act, according to Rahman.

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