Bharat Bhushan | Nepal Freefall: Dysfunction Behind, Uncertainty Ahead

The Nepali administration is in flux even after a month-long Gen Z agitation. “The old is dying and the new cannot be born. Now is the time of monsters,” Italian political philosopher Antonio Gramsci wrote in his Prison Notebooks. This is an apt description of today’s Nepal.

Even as Nepal’s old and corrupt political order collapses, there is no new stable order on the horizon. The old political parties have lost their dominance and reactionary forces are racing hard to fill this gap.

The interim government of former chief justice of the Supreme Court of Nepal Sushila Karki, formed on September 12, 2025, is still unable to form a full Cabinet. His government’s nonpartisan mandate means it must avoid appointments from traditional parties, narrowing the pool of acceptable candidates. Any candidacy is subject to intense public and media scrutiny, especially when it comes to getting a green signal from self-styled leaders of Generation Z about corruption or political affiliations.

Ms Karki’s job is further complicated by the fact that she has to ensure caste, regional and gender diversity in the selection of the Cabinet. Wary of the fragility of the interim structure, many potential candidates refused to commit themselves to an indefinite term.

There are expectations that a second mass unrest may surface after Diwali and Chhat Puja. Political and military sources in Nepal believe that monarchist forces will lead this agitation. Generation Z protesters, who were shocked by the unexpected arson and looting during their protests, could not regain their old energy.

Although monarchist thought is in the minority, monarchists believe the students’ agitation has given them momentum to rebrand the monarchy as a stabilizing alternative to chaotic republican politics. They hope they can channel youth frustration into monarchist nostalgia.

However, any agitation led by monarchists will surely lead to a reaction from federalists and ethnic groups. In such a situation, the position of the Sushila Karki government may become unstable. It will all depend on the size and severity of the agitations and Ms Karki’s ability to get the institutional support she needs from the Army, judiciary and civil society.

If the interim government collapses, there may be pressure to reestablish the Parliament. There are already several petitions in the Supreme Court of Nepal against the unconstitutional dissolution of Parliament. If the court orders restoration, political parties will need to ensure that partisan politics does not re-emerge. For this to happen, radical changes need to be made between the parties.

The strongest signal of change will be getting rid of the old leadership. Public support for a government led by a reconstituted Parliament will only be possible if the three leaders (KP Sharma Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda) are removed from office.

Mr. Deuba has already given up his post as president of the Nepali Congress. A new leader will be elected at the party’s national congress in December. The main candidates for the top job are Gagan Thapa, Shekhar Koirala and Purna Bahadur Khadka, the acting chairman and likely Mr Deuba’s favorite for the job.

Mr. Oli remains chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist). Arguing that party decisions cannot be taken by “what is said on Facebook”, he declared: “I have a huge responsibility. I am not going to step down without accomplishing it.” However, there is speculation that he will be succeeded by his one-time protégé and former Nepalese President Bidya Devi Bhandari.

Mr Prachanda is also facing a backlash from the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). His chief rival, Janardan Sharma Prabhakar, demanded that he resign along with all incumbents and attend a national meeting. Mr Prachanda did not resign but agreed to hold a national convention in December.

As political parties try to reinvent themselves, monarchist forces are trying to infiltrate politics once again. Time will tell whether either of these two forces will succeed in gaining public legitimacy.

Meanwhile, the protesting youth could not offer any alternative; they have no political parties. It is unclear whether they will be able to form a party before the general elections scheduled for March 5.

Holding an election in March does not seem possible at the moment. Without peace and security on the ground, normal political activity cannot begin, especially at a time when security personnel live in fear. Police morale was seriously damaged. Of the 15,000 criminals who escaped from prisons across the country during the September protests, approximately 5,000 criminals are walking free, and security forces have been unable to locate 800 guns and light weapons looted on 8 and 9 September. Political parties complained to the Election Commission that Ms. Karki was acting in a vindictive manner against them instead of ensuring a neutral environment for the elections.

If Parliament is revived, by-elections are out of the question. But Nepali society will have to decide on some difficult questions: What kind of Parliament will it be, what will its relationship with the new government be like, how will the voice of Generation Z be represented, will there be constitutional changes and what kind?

While India and China were apparently caught off guard in the September agitation, they should be able to anticipate how various political scenarios might play out this time around. They, along with the monarchists, did not like the separation of federal states from a small country like Nepal. Monarchists also do not want proportional representation and prefer only a first-past-the-post system. It is these elements of Nepal’s constitution that ensure the representation of women, religious minorities and jajatis.

The attitude of Generation Z leaders on these issues is unclear. They are neither in a position to impose their will on politics, nor do they have the tools to do so, nor do they have a road map for the future. Unable to produce an alternative governance framework, the youth movement appears to have become a force of instability and open to manipulation by forces within and outside Nepal.

The uncertainty of Nepal’s governance has created a breeding ground for Gramsci’s “monsters”: figures and movements that thrive on extremism, authoritarianism, and disorder.

The author, a senior journalist based in New Delhi, was recently in Nepal.