Volume in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump’s market-turning post
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 18, 2026 in New York City, United States.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
S&P 500 futures and oil futures experienced an unusual burst of activity early Monday ahead of a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.
Around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures traded on CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking away from the weak pre-market environment. With the weak liquidity typical of early trading hours, the burst stood out as one of the biggest volume moments of the session up to that point.
A similar picture was observed in the oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity around the same time, with a significant increase in volume disrupting otherwise quiet conditions.
About 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the United States and Iran were in talks and halted planned attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure. This announcement sparked a sudden rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures rising more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures fell nearly 6% following the announcement.
The timing of previous volume increases in both stocks and crude oil has caught traders’ attention, especially given the lack of an obvious catalyst at the time these rallies occurred.
Futures markets in the early morning hours are generally less liquid, which can make brief bursts of buying and selling more noticeable than during normal trading hours. Still, these transactions raised some suspicions because the person who bought a large amount of stock futures contracts at that moment and sold crude futures contracts or short-term crude futures contracts made a lot of money a few minutes later.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Of course, algorithmic and macro-focused strategies can also create rapid flows across asset classes without a single identifiable catalyst in early trading.
— With help from CNBC’s Fred Imbert.
