Breaking down the United States’ path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final as knockout play nears

The USMNT are flying high as Group D winners. Winning their first two matches was historic. The country is brimming with patriotism and ready to ride that wave all the way to the World Cup Final, but the road just got a little tougher after Belgium’s big win on Friday. Now it’s time to pave the way for the United States to qualify for its first ever World Cup Final.

round 32

The USA opens the knockout stage on July 1 in Santa Clara, California, against Bosnia and Herzegovina, which finished third in Group B. A very good match to kick things off on the win or go home stage.

If you’re wondering how and why we played Bosnia, the matchup came from FIFA’s third-tier matchmaking system. There are 48 teams in the 2026 World Cup; The knockout stage features not only the 12 group winners and 12 runners-up, but also the eight best third-placed teams. Before the tournament, FIFA created a table of 495 possible combinations that determined which third-place teams would face each group winner, depending on which groups the teams came from. When the group stage ended, Bosnia and Herzegovina became the USA’s third-ranked team and the USMNT’s opponent in the Round of 32. *Now it’s time for ‘You Know More’ music*

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Round 16

Before the Round of 16, the USA is likely to face Belgium on July 6 in Seattle. Belgium won Group G and entered the tournament ranked ninth in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men’s World Rankings. Their exact opponents in the Round of 32 are still unknown and could include teams such as South Korea, Senegal, Algeria or Austria.

More importantly, Belgium had already beaten the USA 5-2 in a friendly match in March, making it a more intriguing rematch. The group was also shaped by the tiebreakers in Group B; Belgium and Egypt finished the match with five points, but Belgium advanced with a better goal difference.

Frankly, the USA would prefer Egypt. Belgium is a dangerous team with real knockout power. The red-white-blue need to do their best to get to the quarter-finals.

U.S. fans cheer after a goal against Türkiye in the second half of the 2026 FIFA World Cup match at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood on June 25, 2026. (Keith Birmingham/Pasadena Star-News)

Quarterfinals

If the USMNT achieves its success in 2002 and reaches the quarter-finals, the likely opponent waiting there will be Spain and the winner of Group H, superstar Lamine Yamal. Spain are already the only team left at this end of the group and will open the knockout phase on July 2 against Group J runners-up Algeria or Austria.

In the Spanish half, Round 32 matches in Groups K and L could produce additional strong contenders. Depending on the final group results, Colombia or Portugal from Group K and Croatia or Ghana from Group L look like the most likely runners-up; There is still the potential for England to influence the results depending on Saturday’s final match.

Due to this structure, the path to the quarter finals is shaping up to be extremely difficult for the USA. If the USA can get that far, a July 10 game in Los Angeles could realistically be against Spain, Colombia or Portugal; Any of these matches would be the toughest test of the tournament series.

In short: If the USA reach the last eight, they will most likely face a European or South American heavyweight (specifically Spain or Portugal). Doing this stage may be an achievement in itself, but we’re not here for pats on the back, good runs and participation trophies.

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Lamine Yamal of Spain celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H match against Saudi Arabia at Atlanta Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., on June 21, 2026. (Patrick Smith/FIFA/Getty Images)

semi-finals

The USMNT had reached the World Cup semifinals only once before, in 1930, during the inaugural tournament in which only 13 teams competed. While the format was much different then, it still stands as the deepest run in U.S. men’s World Cup history.

In the expanded 2026 format, you’ll need to win three consecutive knockout matches to reach the semi-finals, which will likely involve beating multiple elite national teams, as I mentioned earlier.

If the USA had made it this far, the semifinals would have been played on July 14 at AT&T Stadium (Dallas Stadium) in Arlington. Potential rivals at the other end of the group include some of the strongest teams in world football, including France and Germany, who have won six World Cup titles. Other possible opponents include three-time World Cup runners-up Netherlands, who knocked out the United States in 2022, as well as Paraguay, Sweden, Morocco and Canada.

In short: a run to the semifinals will almost certainly require the USA to defeat at least one or more global powers, making it the toughest and most historic stretch in the program’s history. We’re talking about a “Miracle 2.0” type run here.

German midfielder Aleksandar Pavlović tackles the ball from U.S. forward Christian Pulisic during the first half of an international friendly soccer match in Chicago on June 6, 2026. (Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press)

World Cup Final

If the USMNT were to reach the World Cup Final, it would be held on July 19 at MetLife Stadium, which was renamed New York New Jersey Stadium by FIFA for the tournament. This will represent the most important moment in the history of American football, especially as a home final played in front of a national crowd and global attention.

But the road on the other side of support is filled with traditional forces. Brazil (five-time champion), Argentina (three-time winner and defending champion) and Mexico are already confirmed in this half of the draw. England and Portugal could also join them, depending on what the group stage results are like.

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In other words, a potential U.S. final would almost certainly come against one of the sport’s historic giants, making the entire qualifying road one of the toughest runs in World Cup history.

So I have only one question: “Do you believe in miracles?”