Can Andy Burnham actually beat Reform to take on Starmer? Here’s what the data shows

Andy Burnham has been allowed to stand for Makerfield in the upcoming by-election, paving the way for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labor leadership.

Mr Burnham had the approval of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand, having previously blocked him from running in Friday’s by-elections in Gorton and Denton in February. The decision comes a day after Josh Simons announced he would quit parliament so he could run for the seat of mayor of Manchester.

But there is a hurdle in Mr Burnham’s path to Westminster: winning the by-election against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Wigan’s Makerfield, long seen as a safe Labor seat, has been held by the party since its formation in 1983.

But Mr Simons won the seat by just 5,399 votes against Reform UK in the 2024 general election. Since then, Labor’s polls have collapsed while Reform’s polls have been on the rise.

This month’s local elections saw Mr Farage’s party win all council areas in the Makerfield constituency, receiving around half the vote. Labour, with just over a quarter of the vote, was left behind.

Wes Streeting on Friday backed Andy Burnham as Labour’s “best chance” of winning a by-election, despite the former health secretary’s allies insisting he would also enter any leadership race.

Mr Burnham, who is currently Labour’s mayor of Greater Manchester, is recorded as Britain’s most popular politician by YouGov pollsters, with 35 per cent of people having a positive view of him. By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity is at 19 per cent, while Mr Streeting’s is at just 12.

Public support for Mr Burnham is thought to be even more pronounced in the north-west, with many locals approving of his record as mayor since 2017.

Another hurdle that could hit Mr Burnham’s chances is rising support for the Green Party, which had the second highest vote share in the last local election and won a historic victory in Gorton and Denton earlier this year.

Zack Polanski said his party was already searching for a candidate in Makerfield, dampening hopes Burnham might step aside to ensure the progressive vote was not split in favor of Reform.

The Greens won in Gorton and Denton with 41 per cent of the vote, Reform on 29 per cent and Labor on 25 per cent. But a poll by Survation after the incident showed Mr Burham would have received 47 per cent of the vote if he had been the Labor candidate, compared to 25 per cent for the Greens.

Pollster Sir John Curtice said Labor would have “less than a 5 per cent chance” in the Makerfield by-election “if it was anyone other than Andy Burnham”. He added that it was one of the tightest Labor Reform contests and a “much tougher” election to win than Gorton and Denton.

Figures show overwhelming support for Mr Burnham in the region. But one factor that could work against him is Makerfield voters’ feeling that he is using the seat as a springboard to reach the top job. This is a difficult variable to predict, but a clearer picture will undoubtedly emerge in the months leading up to the competition.

The election could also be expensive, especially given that a victory for Mr Burnham would trigger another by-election for the mayor of Greater Manchester.

A by-election in Makerfield alone could cost the taxpayer up to £226,000; this is the maximum amount that the district’s returning officer can claim from the Treasury to cover the costs of conducting the survey.

But while the mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester will cost millions, the 2024 mayoral race will cost taxpayers £4.7 million.

Speaking to BBC Manchester on Friday, Mr Simons admitted the contest would be “a really tough challenge” and added he did not know what the outcome would be.

He said: “Sometimes in history when people take risks and say, ‘I think this is the right fight, but I don’t know if we can win,’ that’s what changes the story. That’s what changes the course of things.”