Cautious shoppers plan to spend less this Black Friday

Black Friday shoppers flocked to stores hoping to get more bags for their money as they grapple with concerns about inflation, tariffs and the health of the economy.

Citadel Outlets in Commerce was packed Friday morning with long waits for parking and winding lines outside the stores as consumers tried to score good deals. Camila Romero and her 13-year-old daughter waited in line for hours to get the best possible deals on the Ugg and Coach items on their wish lists.

“You come to Kale because it has sales points. Moreover, there are discounts,” he said. “So even if you’re hurt, you don’t feel it.”

Data shows shoppers across Los Angeles plan to spend less this holiday season. As retailers tease their biggest deals and prepare for what they hope will be strong demand, a survey from Deloitte found that Angelenos plan to spend 14% less during the holidays than last year.

Shoppers across the country are expected to spend 10% less than last year.

Rebecca Lohrey, Deloitte’s partner specializing in retail and e-commerce, said consumers are holding back on spending due to economic uncertainty and rising prices.

“There is at least the perception of higher prices and higher cost of goods,” Lohrey said. “This is a concern for all consumers and one of the reasons why they are tightening their wallets a little bit.”

The survey found that 62% of Angelenos expect the economy to weaken next year; this rate was 34% in 2024. About the same percentage of survey respondents said they were worried about a possible recession in the next six months.

The data showed that consumers across income groups are making cost-cutting compromises and placing greater emphasis on finding the best deal. More than half of Los Angeles respondents said they would switch brands if their first choice was too expensive.

“The segments that are most likely to trade tend to be lower-income groups or middle-income groups,” said Collin Colburn, vice president of commerce and retail media for the Interactive Advertising Bureau. “Everyone is actually in decline this year.”

Camryn Smith and her daughter arrived early Friday morning to peep the deals at Americana on Brand in Glendale. He said the discounts help offset some of the impact of inflation.

“Prices are higher and that brings them down to where they would normally be,” Smith said. “This is crazy.”

Consumers are tired constant inflation and the instability brought by the Trump administration. More customers are giving repeat gifts or considering giving homemade gifts, according to a Deloitte survey.

“We’re in an environment where prices continue to rise for a number of reasons, one of which is inflation and the other is tariffs,” Colburn said. he said. “I think it really puts a strain on the consumer when this happens every year.”

This means more customers are looking for ways to save on purchases and gifts they can’t put off.

National Retail Federation, a registration number of Americans will shop at discounts over the Thanksgiving weekend. The Federation stated that retail sales in November and December are expected to increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to last year.

NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said cautious consumers are more eager than ever to find a hot deal.

“People are changing the way they spend,” he said. “They are more focused on stretching their dollars and getting value for their dollars.”

Shoppers are also taking advantage of new tools, including artificial intelligence, to help them find products and deals. Data collected by the Interactive Advertising Bureau found that AI now ranks ahead of retailers’ websites and apps and as the second most effective shopping source, behind only search engines.

According to IAB data, nearly 90% of shoppers nationwide said AI helped them find products they might not have otherwise found.

El Segundo-based toy company Mattel is offering up to 50% off Hot Wheels at Target, Barbie dolls and Disney Princess toys, company spokeswoman Kelly Powers said.

“Mattel is working closely with retailers across the country on Black Friday deals,” Powers said.

In May, Mattel said it was considering raising its prices to offset the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on China, where the company produces about 80% of the toys it sells in the United States. Mattel also paused its full-year financial guidance, citing uncertainty about the economy and tariffs, and said it expects tariffs to impact its costs in the third quarter.

But in its October earnings call, the company said the full impact of the tariffs wouldn’t be seen until the fourth quarter.

Discount retailers, which rely heavily on foot traffic, are sending conflicting signals about their business.

Walmart recently raised its sales forecast for this year after reporting a 6% year-over-year increase in revenue in the third quarter.

Target, by contrast, missed analysts’ expectations and reported a 1.5% decline in sales in the third quarter. In a call with analysts earlier this month, Target Chief Executive Brian Cornell said the company was “not performing to its potential.”

Of course, for many shoppers on Friday, the pilgrimage to splurge at the local mall was about more than just saving money.

Ericka Pentasuglia brought her daughter to Americana the Brand around 3 a.m. to be first in line for a pop-up store selling Billie Eilish perfume. He felt it was important for him to pass on the tradition of Black Friday shopping.

“I feel like I’m dying a little bit,” Pentasuglia said. “The best thing is not to lose a tradition and to continue it with your children.”