Ceasefire or escalation? Trump weighs Iran talks amid troop surge
WASHINGTON— With the fragile ceasefire with Iran scheduled to end within days, President Trump is still deciding between diplomacy and a resumption of war that may ultimately depend on his definition of victory.
As negotiations continued last week between the warring parties on a potential deal that would end the conflict and restrict Iran’s nuclear ambitions, interlocutors from Pakistan conveyed messages that kept the talks alive. Tehran has offered to extend the two-week ceasefire, which the American side is actively considering and is due to expire on Tuesday.
But the Islamic Republic simultaneously vowed to retaliate against a new US blockade of Iranian ports, which has cut off Tehran’s oil sales, which account for almost 85% of the country’s export revenue. And the Trump administration is deploying up to 10,000 additional troops to the region on top of the 50,000 already there; both strengthening the blockade and threatening ground operations if diplomacy fails.
The conflicting messages from the Trump administration are designed to increase pressure on Tehran ahead of the ceasefire deadline and potentially extract concessions at the negotiating table.
But speaking to reporters, Trump made clear that he was looking for a way to end the war completely.
“I think it’s almost finishedTrump told Fox News on Wednesday: “I think this is very close to the end. If I were to go out on a limb now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we’re not done. We’ll see what happens. I think they want to make a terrible deal.”
Negotiations towards this goal proved to be more difficult than the administration had initially expected.
Trump said he started the war to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, disrupt its ballistic missile and drone programs, and destroy its navy. But in the talks, the Iranians did not give up their rights to enrich uranium, maintain conventional defense capabilities and control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital waterways.
Tehran last week rejected a proposal by U.S. negotiators for a 20-year pause on Iran’s domestic enrichment of fissile material, to which the Iranians responded with a five-year moratorium, an official said.
In an interview with Fox, Trump said that the talks were going very well and that the ceasefire may not need to be extended. But speaking to the New York Post, Trump said he would not settle for anything less than an indefinite cap on Iran’s nuclear activities.
“I say they can’t have nuclear weapons, so I don’t like 20 years,” Trump said.
“I don’t want them to feel like they’ve won,” he added.
The US ceasefire with Iran was based on the resumption of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. But threats of Iran’s new toll system and warnings about drifting mines limited traffic, leading the Trump administration to announce a complete blockade of the strait. The fact that ships continued to pass through the passage this week despite the US threat indicates that the US blockade is focused more on Iranian ports.
Amid this stalemate, global oil prices remain stubbornly high; That’s a concern for Republicans heading into this year’s midterm election season. Trump told Fox he expects prices to fall to pre-war levels by the vote in November.
“It’s going to be a blow, but I think he’ll make a full recovery,” Trump said. “I think we’ll be somewhere around where we are, maybe even lower. And when this is over, I think the stock market will go up.”
A second round of high-level talks could be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, within the next few days, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday.
Pakistani officials traveled to Tehran on Wednesday to deliver a message from the US delegation, potentially setting the stage for new, face-to-face talks.
“He made his red lines in these negotiations very clear to the other side,” Leavitt said. “We feel good about the chances of a deal.”
