China’s C919 jet faces turbulent skies amid US-China trade tensions

HONG KONG (AP) — China’s bid to challenge Boeing and Airbus with a homegrown passenger jet is running into turbulence, with finished aircraft deliveries likely to fall far short of its announced target for this year.

C919 jet The single-aisle passenger plane, which aims to rival Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’ A320, was produced by state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC. Beijing cites this as evidence of China’s technological advancement and progress in self-reliance, even though it uses many Western-sourced components.

trade friction Washington is threatening to block COMAC from supplying key parts of the program, which is backed by massive subsidies from the Chinese government.

“COMAC faces significant risk from the volatile policy environment as supply chains remain vulnerable to export restrictions and tit-for-tat measures between the United States and China,” said Max J. Zenglein, senior Asia-Pacific economist at The Conference Board think tank.

According to analysts at Bank of America, C919 has 48 major suppliers from the United States – including GE, Honeywell and Collins – 26 from Europe and 14 from China. Trump threatened to impose sanctions new export controls China on “critical” software after Beijing imposed stricter export controls on rare earth elements.

“Existing blockages in the deal-making process between governments are being exploited,” Zenglein said. “This will likely continue as critical dependencies become political bargaining chips.”

Beijing has high hopes for the C919. made its first commercial flight The mid-size jet is intended to help meet huge domestic demand for new aircraft over the next few decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and fly globally, including Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese carriers last year and only seven as of October this year, despite plans to ramp up production and deliver 30 jets in 2025, according to aviation consultancy Cirium.

China’s largest state-owned airlines – Air China, China Eastern and China Southern – are the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of around 20 C919s.

Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA, said trade tensions between the US and China were “directly impacting” delivery schedules for the C919. First, he said production plans were disrupted when the United States suspended export licenses for the jet’s LEAP-1C engines around May and restarted them in July.

The US-controlled technology, which requires an export license for LEAP-1C engines produced jointly by US GE Aerospace and France’s Safran, means the C919’s engines require US export authorization, making it “inherently susceptible to political changes”, Taylor said.

“Dependence on Western suppliers for engines and avionics continues to subject the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC’s control,” Taylor explained.

Geopolitical tensions are not the only reason for slower-than-expected production of C919s. The Conference Board’s Zenglein said the program was “carefully marked and quality and safety were prioritized, so there may be some operational reasons for the slower production ramp-up.”

While Zenglein stated that “reducing the dependence on foreign components as soon as possible has always been the goal” for the C919, many analysts say that this is a difficult process. According to IBA, China’s own engine alternative – the CJ-1000A being developed by the state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) – is still in the testing phase.

Several airlines outside China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but lack of international certification has so far prevented the C919 from flying beyond China. Certifications from aviation regulators of the United States and the European Union can take years to obtain.

To be successful, the C919 “needs to have each of three things: good economics, a fast global product support network, and certification from safety organizations,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. “Any one of those three alone doesn’t mean much,” he said.

China will need 9,570 new passenger planes between 2025 and 2044, according to Airbus’ latest report market forecastMore than 80% of these are single-aisle jets such as the C919.

COMAC faces a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its production capacity in China. A second assembly line is scheduled to become operational in 2026 and will allow Airbus to increase production of the A320 single-aisle jet, an aircraft model similar to the C919 in China.

Analysts predict it will take years for COMAC to reach this status Breaking the Boeing-Airbus duopoly On global aircraft share, IBA’s Taylor said that by the late 2020s, COMAC will likely expand within China and possibly export regionally.

Taylor added that a lack of international certification in the near future would “delay meaningful entry into the Western market” for the jet, and volatility in export control would likely continue to undermine global expansion plans.