Coalition ready to take ‘medicine’ on by-election D-Day
National Leader Matt Canavan said he was happy to address regional voters’ concerns “at length” as One Nation looks likely to secure its first victory in the federal electorate.
Voters in the Farrer district in southern NSW will go to the polls on Saturday to elect a new MP after their former representative Sussan Ley resigned from parliament.
After spending 23 days campaigning in regional constituencies – including sleeping in style for 11 nights – Senator Canavan admitted voters were disappointed by Canberra’s perceived lack of leadership.
“There’s no doubt that people want to kick the political class and it’s a bit of a free kick,” he told AAP the day before the by-election as he headed to the town of Corowa, where he planned to hand out donuts to campaign volunteers from all over.
“Win, lose or draw, the best thing is to hear that answer, tap me on the chin, be here to take my medicine. I’m ready to do it.”
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Climate 200-backed independent party looks set to replace the former Liberal leader in the region’s large electorate; But analysts believe the choices could push the populist party over the line as coalition candidates struggle.
The National Party leader insisted other regional coalition seats were not at risk of a One Nation rise, citing unique circumstances in Farrer.
“Midterm elections are always different…a completely different race than normal,” he said.
RedBridge pollster Tony Barry told AAP that while One Nation candidate David Farley and Independent Michelle Milthorpe appeared close together in the polls, the preferences of coalition voters would increase Mr Farley’s chances of crossing the line.
“Winning the seat in the primaries is very unlikely, but if that happens it would be a total boilerplate. So preference flows will be critical,” he said.
“They are the intuitive choice to win the seat due to the coalition’s preference for One Nation.”
Polls show Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson trailing far behind.
The former Liberal party strategist said if One Nation wins it would show the populist party is a strong electoral force, especially in regional areas.
“If they cannibalize the Liberal and National Party votes as expected, then it would be a very safe conclusion to say that we would see similar voting behavior and patterns in other regional seats,” Mr Barry said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the vote was a test for Senator Canavan and his Liberal counterpart Angus Taylor and that it would be an extraordinary result if the Liberals and Nationals failed to finish in the top two.
The Labor Party is not running any candidates in the by-election.
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