Conservatives give SNP leader a bloody nose in Aberdeen South by-election – as cabinet secretary Stephen Flynn reflects on ‘tough night’ for his party
The Scottish Conservatives are increasingly confident of a historic victory in the South Aberdeen by-election after a tactical rally in their favour.
Party sources believe they came from third place to topple the SNP majority of almost 4,000 by a huge margin.
If true, this would be the first Conservative Party win in a Westminster by-election in Scotland since the Glasgow Pollok in 1967.
While an official announcement is expected to be made around 2am, SNP MSP Stephen Flynn wrote of X in the early hours of Friday: ‘A tough night for some in Aberdeen to reflect on.
‘My condolences to my good friend Richard Thomson; A great guy and colleague.
‘Congratulations [Conservative Party candidate] I know Douglas Lumsden loves this city as much as I do and I look forward to working with him.
‘We lost Aberdeen South to the Conservatives in 2017 and won it back two years later. I have no doubt we can do this again. If we do things right.’
Effectively conceding defeat, Aberdeen Central MSP Jack Middleton told Sky News earlier on Thursday evening: ‘It looks like a Tory night. We will get this back in 2029.’
Stephen Flynn, former SNP leader at Westminster and current Holyrood cabinet secretary, said it was a ‘tough night’ for the party
Scottish Conservative Party candidate Douglas Lumsden (right) watches votes being counted for the South Aberdeen by-election
SNP candidate Richard Gordon Thomson pictured during vote counting in Aberdeen
Early indications were that support for Labor and Reform England, which came second and fourth in the 2024 general election, was collapsing.
An SNP source said the party was facing a ‘tactical vote’ against itself and the future of the oil and gas industry in the North East was a key factor.
A Green source said the Conservatives crushed the SNP in the seat’s wealthy suburbs, which are home to many workers whose jobs rely on North Sea drilling.
A clear SNP loss would be a humiliation for John Swinney in his first election test since the Peter Murrell scandal exploded in shocking detail.
The Conservative Party, hurt after losing most of its MSPs in last month’s Holyrood election, has pinned everything on Aberdeen South in the first step of recovery.
The party sought to turn the race into a local referendum on the oil and gas sector, claiming only they could be trusted with the future of the North Sea.
UK leader Kemi Badenoch was a regular visitor and warned it was ‘madness’ to ignore new drilling in UK waters while relying instead on costly and more polluting imports.
In addition to the focus on oil and gas, the byelection was held despite the scandal.
A clear SNP loss would be a humiliation for John Swinney (left) in his first election test since the Peter Murrell scandal exploded in shocking detail.
During the campaign, former SNP chief executive Murrell pleaded guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from party funds between 2010 and 2012 while he was married to Nicola Sturgeon.
For most of the period, Ms Sturgeon was also First Minister.
Murrell used money from the SNP’s main bank account to buy hundreds of luxury items, including Montblanc pens, designer watches, cars and a £124,000 camper van.
Despite numerous deliveries being made to the couple’s matrimonial home near Glasgow, Ms Sturgeon denied knowing or suspecting any wrongdoing by her now estranged husband.
Mr Swinney refused to hold an investigation into how Murrell was able to steal for so long, claiming the long-running police investigation that led to his conviction was sufficient.
The by-election was triggered by former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn’s move to Holyrood in last month’s election, forcing him to give up his Commons seat.
At the 2024 general election, Labor held the seat with a majority of 3,758 votes, falling 155 votes behind the Conservative Party.
Mr Flynn won the seat of Holyrood in Aberdeen Deeside thanks to Reform UK splitting the anti-nationalist vote; their 6,113 votes eclipsed the SNP’s lead of just 1,244.
The Conservatives used their bitter defeat in Aberdeen Deeside to warn voters not to make the same mistake in Aberdeen South and end up with ‘buyer’s remorse’.
The SNP is expected to retain the constituencies of Broughty Ferry and Arbroath, where MP Stephen Gethins resigned after being elected to the Scottish Parliament.
