Could this one man have been behind terrorist attacks on Jewish communities across Europe? | UK security and counter-terrorism

On Monday, a disheveled Iraqi man, handcuffed and wearing a beige prison jumpsuit, was led into a Manhattan courtroom.

Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, 32, pleaded not guilty to a string of terrorism-related crimes, then signaled to judges and prosecutors. “I am a prisoner of war. I am not a threat,” he told them. “Children and women are being killed by your rockets.”

Al Saadi, who later faced life behind bars, was taken away.

The brief hearing was the latest chapter in an extraordinary story that seems far from over. It includes: two powers at war; One of the most high-profile terror campaigns in Europe and the UK for many years; A new form of warfare for which Western security services have not yet found an answer; young petty criminals caught up in geopolitics; Islamist militias in Iraq; and inevitably the disruptive power of social media for 2026.

Researchers say that the person who brought all this together was Al Saadi.

The story begins a week after the joint US-Israeli attack that started the war with Iran, when someone posted a series of messages on Telegram and Snapchat in the middle of the night that appeared to send secret instructions to terrorist networks in Europe.

Messages calling for “Shadow Soldiers” granted “all silent cells permission to operate” and included a code of three letters and nine numbers, apparently identifying specific teams or individuals.

Fifty-two hours later, a makeshift bomb exploded outside a synagogue in Liège, Belgium. Then came the attacks synagogue in Rotterdam And a jewish school In Amsterdam, a bomb targeted a branch of the New York Mellon Bank. Eventually the violence crossed the Channel. On March 23, CCTV cameras captured three men setting fire to four ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in north London.

In total, there were 18 such attacks between early March and late April. Many targeted Jewish schools or houses of worship; There was a particular focus on the United Kingdom. No one died, but the campaign caused great fear in a society already experiencing high levels of hostility and violence. This situation also raised great concerns among the public and security authorities.

Responsibility for most of the attacks was claimed within hours, sometimes minutes, by a previously unknown organization: Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI). This led to a wave of speculation in the media about a new militant Islamist group targeting Europe; some have cited the example of the Islamic State or even Al Qaeda.

In fact, court documents show that HAYI was a single person: al-Saadi, who directed the attacks from an office in Baghdad.

Michael Knights, an expert on Iraqi militias at Horizon Engage, a New York-based strategic consultancy, said al-Saadi was recruited in his early 20s into the Shiite militia created by Tehran after the US invaded Iraq in 2003. Al-Saadi was deployed to Syria when Shiite militia forces were sent by Iran to support Bashar Assad’s regime. There he often exaggerated his combat experience.

Al-Saadi, along with his militia comrades, also took part in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq. Although his exact role is unclear social media posts He claims their activities include assassination, kidnapping, and possibly weapons supply and distribution.

But what is clear is that this enterprising and ambitious young man had excellent connections with very senior Iranian officials, especially the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the paramilitary wing of the radical religious regime that came to power in Tehran in 1979.

Al-Saadi’s mentor appears to be Qassem Soleimani, an almost legendary figure in the world of Shiite militant movements who founded and led Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force, which conducts overseas operations. Al-Saadi was with Soleimani and cradling the body of his dying mentor when he was hit in a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020, according to an investigator. Enemies described Al-Saadi as Soleimani’s “guardian”.

In the following years, al-Saadi traveled extensively and posted selfies in Paris. Malaysiaand possibly visiting Austria. Knights said it is involved in purchasing networks, supplying drones and components across Europe and beyond.

Stamps in al-Saadi’s Iraqi “government service” passport indicate a trip to Spain in August 2023. A 12-month Italian visa that would have given access to the entire Schengen area was granted that year, but was later cancelled. Al-Saadi posted online that he was denied entry to Italy while traveling with a government delegation; this was an allegation that at least some EU security officials were aware of his activities.

“He was certainly known in Europe. If the FBI had enough information to catch him, others knew too,” said a legal source with close knowledge of the U.S. investigation.

The footage also shows Al-Saadi at the official Iranian government stand at a major arms fair in Moscow, possibly in 2024.

Phillip Smyth, a US-based independent analyst specializing in Iraqi Shiite militias, said: “In Moscow he may have information about covert operations. In Europe he may just be working out the logistics of such activities… [Iranian] “For example, diplomats working in Paris and arranging secret communication tools, etc.”

Back in Iraq, al-Saadi became involved in Russian-led online “information operations,” another key component of what security experts call “hybrid warfare.” He helped run a network of Telegram channels that spread propaganda for Iranian-run Shiite militias. He was also very active on his own social media accounts, often under his own name.

“He’s in his 30s, he’s in the Middle East and so he lives his life online… but you can operate in and out of the shadows and that can be very effective,” Smyth said.

When the war with the United States and Israel began, some analysts believe that Al-Saadi was given clear instructions by Revolutionary Guard officers in Tehran. He had traveled there in late January and met then-religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Others argue that he is being kept at arm’s length to maintain “plausible deniability” for Iran about what happens next.

Both fit a broader pattern of Iran using proxies overseas to carry out strategic missions overseas that its own security services are unwilling or unable to carry out. Historically, this has included terrorism against Jewish and Israeli targets worldwide.

US court documents, interviews with lawyers, independent investigations by experts and media reports have enabled a detailed reconstruction of the “proxy” campaign that followed.

The March 7 trigger message was posted on Snapchat as well as “very active” Telegram channels associated with Iran-backed militias in Iraq, investigators said.

Julian Lanchès from the International Counterterrorism Center in The Hague, who followed the posts, said: “Al-Saadi was not running these channels and he was not alone.”

Soon, claims began to come from HAYI, sometimes within a few minutes, accompanied by images, claiming responsibility for the attacks.

According to the US indictment, Al Saadi’s mobile phone contains images taken during the arson attack on April 18. In a synagogue in north-west London Show him and three or four other men on a video call projected on a large screen with the HAYI logo in the background. In the video, one of the men tells someone in English to take the lighter and throw it away.

Eleven days later – when two Jews were stabbed in north London – Al Saadi instructed a contact in an Iraqi Shiite militia group to “put it on the news”.[,] A NOI claim emerged on Telegram very soon after, but investigators believe al-Saadi had nothing to do with the attack. Hours later, al-Saadi told his contact: “If God gives us success tonight, there will be a shooting in a restaurant.”

This attack, a potentially serious escalation, never materialized. Within hours, al-Saadi was detained by Turkish security forces at a hotel in Istanbul. Just before disappearing into an underground prison, he managed to release a short video urging his family to “remain faithful”.

Two weeks later, he flew to the United States, where authorities said he asked for help with attacks on Jewish communities there and discussed targeting Donald Trump’s eldest daughter, Ivanka. Al-Saadi was unaware that his primary contact in the United States, an alleged Mexican drug cartel member, was an FBI agent.

There have been no new attacks since al-Saadi’s arrest. Analysts believe Tehran will view this effort as a significant success and will be worried about what the detained agent will say, but not about his loss.

Al Saadi was not the only “disposable agent”. Dozens of people face long prison sentences in England, France and Belgium. Many are underage and have a history of involvement in drugs or other low-level roles, often as couriers. A significant number of people were recruited via social media and were offered as little as €300 for completing seemingly simple, albeit illegal, tasks. Some appear to have little idea of ​​the nature of their targets or the consequences of being caught.

Chantal Van den Bosch, a lawyer representing a 17-year-old boy arrested for firebombing a car on the edge of a Jewish neighborhood in Antwerp in March, said his client and his alleged accomplice thought the attack was crime- and drug-related.

“Whoever gave them the job knew they would be arrested within 15 minutes; they are being used. They are completely replaceable,” he said last week. “It’s just a way to destabilize a community. It’s very easy to divide people.”