Your official summer forecast is here. How hot will it get?
The colors of the season are orange and red new summer forecast map.
In fact, the forecast published on May 21 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center It shows above-average temperatures expected across much of the U.S., except for the Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest.
according to forecast from NOAAThe June-July-August temperature outlook “favors above-normal temperatures in the West, much of the Great Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the East.” Specifically, NOAA said the highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures is in the Pacific Northwest.
Above normal temperatures are also preferred The majority of Alaska.
Summer forecast from private forecaster AccuWeather AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada agrees with NOAA’s predictions: “A hot summer is expected in most of the contiguous United States in 2026, with virtually no areas expected to have temperatures below historical average for the season.” latest online prediction.
NOAA’s 2026 summer temperature outlook shows above-average temperatures expected across most of the country (in red and orange), except for the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.
How hot will it be?
Note that NOAA’s official outlook does not predict exact temperatures; It gives the probabilities of temperatures above normal or below normal. But those odds are high across much of the United States, meaning there’s a higher chance of frequent heat waves and above-average seasonal temperatures.
As for where the worst temperatures are expected, According to AccuWeatherThis would fuel a widespread fire threat, focusing on parts of California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.
“Wildfires in the Northwest and Great Basin could be devastating this summer, with dramatic heat waves and increasing drought conditions.” AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham in question.
Northwest Oregon and Washington state are in the area, NOAA said. predicted highest temperature zoneWhich one A situation specific to El Niño summer.
The heat will not be limited to the West. AccuWeather it also predicts the number of 90-degree days in Boston, Chicago, New York City and Philadelphia will be near or above the historical average.
What about the Midwest?
Will the Midwest suffer the worst heat? Maybe.
On the map, the Midwest is mostly white. What does this mean? “Areas shown in white and labeled ‘Equal Chances’ or ‘EC’ are areas where climate signals are weak and therefore there are equal chances for above-normal, near-normal or below-normal seasonal temperatures,” NOAA said. he explains.
That’s why the Midwest faces an uncertain summer in terms of temperature: “Equal chances of below-normal, near-normal or above-normal temperatures are forecast for the Midwest, where a more variable temperature pattern is expected this summer,” said NOAA meteorologist Brad Pugh. online prediction.
In late summer and early autumn, According to NOAA“The outlook favors slightly below-normal temperatures across parts of the Midwest due to El Niño effects.”
More: NOAA’s hurricane forecast includes El Niño and a surprising development
El Niño’s impact on summer pattern increases
Accordingly AccuWeather’s LadaEl Niño is expected to develop in early summer and will have an increasing impact on tropical regions and broader weather in the United States throughout the remainder of 2026.
A developing El Niño will help increase hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific while keeping the Atlantic season below average overall. Forecasters announced this week.
An early look at next winter’s forecast
Accordingly NOAAGiven the increasing likelihood of a strong El Niño by next winter, from December 2026 through February 2027, the probabilities of above-normal temperatures have increased to over 50% in the northern tier of the United States, from the Pacific Northwest to the eastern Great Plains.
This article first appeared on USA TODAY: Here’s your official summer forecast. How hot will it be?
