DAN HODGES: My sources tell me Keir has decided to stand down, but he’ll do it on his terms

Keir Starmer has told close friends he wants to step down as Prime Minister and has set a regular timetable for his departure.

A Cabinet member told me yesterday afternoon: ‘Keir understands the political reality.

‘He recognizes that the current chaos is unsustainable. He just wants to be able to do it with dignity and in the way he chooses. ‘He will set a timetable.’

According to another Cabinet source, it is not yet clear exactly when this announcement will be made. Some senior Starmer allies are urging him not to make any statements until the first polls and survey data from the Makerfield byelection are available.

‘Morgan McSweeney’ [the PM’s former chief of staff] He was urging him to wait. ‘The Minister argues that whether they are putting up a stiff competition or whether Andy is on track to lose, then there’s still a chance,’ he claimed.

But one supporter of the Prime Minister’s Cabinet told me: ‘He won’t risk waiting for the outcome of the by-election. That would be too much of a personal insult. If he waits and then Burnham wins, it looks like he’s dismissed her.’

Ironically, Sir Keir’s announcement could potentially undermine the Manchester mayor’s bid to return to Westminster. The preference for Burnham supporters is for Starmer to make no statement before the vote at Makerfield on June 18, according to a senior ally. ‘If Keir Starmer was on the ballot it would be a much cleaner contest. Andy needs to be able to say: “If you vote for me, I’ll go to Westminster and drag it out of Downing Street for you.”‘

A spokesman for Burnham’s team said they were ‘comfortable’ about whether Sir Keir would be able to announce a timetable. ‘This is the Prime Minister’s matter. ‘We are focusing on making the case for Andy’s selection as the Makerfield candidate.’

But another Burnham ally told me: ‘We don’t want the message to become complicated. ‘It’s much easier if we’re in a position to say: ‘You’re disappointed with the pace of change. Vote for Andy and you’ll see an instant change in No 10.’

Throughout the week, Starmer’s mood and that of his key advisers have fluctuated wildly. On Monday evening, as a wave of junior ministerial resignations rocked the Government, the Prime Minister began to realize that he would have to bow to the inevitable.

He reached out to a number of senior ministers to gauge their views and begin charting an orderly road forward. But a series of aggressive briefings against him, particularly from allies of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, have sparked a furious response from Sir Keir and his allies.

‘His view was: ‘I’m trying to do the right thing here and they’re all trying to fuck me,” a source said. The following morning, the Prime Minister’s Chief Secretary, Darren Jones, was sent on a media tour to clear the way for a possible resignation announcement. “I will not get in the way of any decision the Prime Minister may or may not make,” he told Sky News.

But before his next interview, the situation changed. ‘Darren got a call from number 10,’ a Government adviser told me. They said, ‘Change your line, we are digging.'”

Over the next 48 hours, Starmer was strengthened by a burning sense of betrayal towards senior members of his cabinet. At the top of the list was Mahmood, whose close ally Josh Simons fueled the revolt by Labor MPs with an article in The Times: ‘I don’t believe the Prime Minister can rise to this moment. He lost the country. He must take control of the situation by overseeing an orderly transition to a new Prime Minister.’

This intervention particularly hurt Sir Keir because Simons was one of his key strategists and director of the Starmerite Labor Together think tank.

Now Downing Street saw betrayal everywhere. A Starmer supporter told me that two senior ministers who openly support him had secretly sent their private advisers to lobby MPs to call for him to leave. Other senior ministers reportedly brokered deals with rival camps for Cabinet positions following the transition to a new leader.

As one minister said: ‘What really touched Keir was people telling him, ‘I’m still with you.’ They would then walk away and continue to actively coordinate with the conspirators.’

The decisive moment came on Thursday. No 10 was hopeful that a new round of good news on the economy and NHS waiting lists could be used to push back the agenda and try to build a narrative that the government would deliver slowly but steadily.

A few hours later Wes Streeting left the Cabinet. Shortly after his departure, news broke that Josh Simons had resigned to allow Andy Burnham to return to parliament.

But then Chancellor Rachel Reeves arrived at Downing Street for an interview with the BBC. ‘Because of the additional £29 billion a year that I have been able to allocate to the Health Service as Chancellor, this means waiting lists should continue to fall,’ he said.

It was deemed meaningful that he used the word ‘I’ instead of ‘The Prime Minister and I’. ‘He’s breaking up with her,’ another cabinet minister told me.

A few hours later Wes Streeting left the Cabinet. Shortly after his departure, news broke that Josh Simons had resigned his seat at Makerfield to allow Andy Burnham to return to Parliament.

‘This was a big blow for them’ [No 10]’ explained a minister. ‘They thought they were sending Wes off and Andy was bluffing about sitting down.’

A desperate last-minute operation was launched in Downing Street to persuade members of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to block Burnham’s standing.

But the attempt was thwarted when Labor Deputy Leader Lucy Powell organized an unprecedentedly rapid three-hour consultation that took Starmer’s team completely by surprise. ‘This was done and dusted before Number 10 knew what was happening,’ one NEC member told me.

I spoke to a friend of Starmer’s last week about whether he thought the Prime Minister would keep fighting despite his situation being clearly hopeless. ‘Keir is stubborn,’ they told me. ‘He has the ability to believe that nothing is written in stone. He’s a cat with nine lives.’

Not anymore. Keir Starmer realizes that his ninth and final life is finally spent.