Deaths will now outnumber births every year in England and Wales after start of July marked grim threshold dubbed ‘DEATH DAY’ due to collapsing birthrate

Deaths are starting to outnumber births in England and Wales, as the start of July marks a grim milestone dubbed ‘Death Day’, according to new analysis.

Official forecasts have shown deaths will outstrip births every year from 2026 and researchers said Britain has entered a ‘new demographic era’ as that threshold was crossed yesterday.

The public will now attend more funerals than christenings, with 450,000 more deaths expected than births over the next decade due to a ‘collapse’ in the birth rate.

Earlier this year the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised downward predictions that the UK population would grow in the coming years due to falling birth rates and a drop in net migration.

A new Center for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of official estimates shows that the threshold at which deaths began to exceed the number of births in England and Wales was crossed on 1 July. This will now be the new normal.

Edward Davies, the think tank’s research director, described it as a ‘worrying turning point’ reflecting ‘decades of failure to adequately support family life’.

The fertility rate (the average number of children women are expected to have) has been falling steadily since 2012, reaching 1.39 last year, the lowest level on record.

This is well below the rate of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population without immigration, and a far cry from the ‘2.4 children’ concept of the stereotypical British nuclear family.

The falling birth rates are blamed on couples postponing their plans to have children due to housing and child care costs, more women prioritizing their careers, and couples choosing to have smaller families.

The CSJ has warned that a ‘collapse’ in the birth rate will lead to increased government spending, with public debt projected to reach 270 per cent of GDP to meet Britain’s aging population.

The think tank said that if Labor tried to maintain today’s worker-pensioner ratio, the state pension age would need to be raised so that children aged 8 and under today would not be able to retire until they are 75.

Mr Davies said: ‘As long as family remains the F-word in politics, the government will not be able to contain the seismic demographic shifts that are damaging the public finances and depriving millions of people of their dreams of parenthood.’

He added: ‘We need to prioritize marriage, help young men onto the scene and make it easier for couples who want to have children to do so.’

In only a few years since the late 1890s (in 1976, during the 2020 pandemic, and again in 2023) have deaths outnumbered births. However, it is estimated that this will be the case every year after 2026.

Declining birth rates in recent years have been masked by record immigration, which has caused the population to grow rapidly even as births and deaths remain roughly the same.

The proportion of babies born to foreign parents in the UK also increased during this period. Official figures show that four in ten babies born last year had at least one parent born outside the UK.

Meanwhile, some areas, such as the West Midlands and London, have seen an increase in the number of births, while others, including the North East and South West, have seen a decrease in the number of births.

Overall, the population is expected to increase by approximately 1.7 million people to reach a total of 71 million by 2034; All of this increase is due to immigration.

The population is predicted to begin declining in the mid-2050s, earlier than previous estimates that suggested it would continue to increase until 2096.

These forecasts have been revised downwards following a record high in the so-called ‘Boris wave’ in 2023 due to the birth rate and falling net migration (the difference between the number of arrivals and departures from the UK).