Democrats have fresh hope to win back Senate – could they really pull it off? | US Senate
A.After Texas Republicans chose beleaguered attorney general Ken Paxton as their party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, Democrats are feeling optimistic they can pull off a victory in the red-leaning state and perhaps win back the Senate in this year’s midterm elections.
Paxton, who has a history of impeachment, accusations of fraud and an alleged affair, defeated incumbent John Cornyn after winning Trump’s endorsement in this year’s most expensive primary. In November, he will face James Talarico, a young state lawmaker and pastor who won the Democratic primary amid a rising national profile.
When Trump took back the White House, winning the Senate seemed like a long shot for the opposition party. And it’s still an uphill climb for Democrats, who must keep all their current seats and flip four seats to regain control of the chamber, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
But a number of factors give Democrats hope: Trump’s approval rating has fallen, the midterms often go against the party in power, Democrats are winning in unexpected places in special elections, and there are candidates in close races who are seeing a rise in popularity by moving away from establishment talking points and leaning on populist platforms.
In the swing state of Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff is expected to retain his seat. The departure of North Carolina senator Thom Tillis leaves the previously Republican-held seat vacant, and former Democratic governor Roy Cooper is poised to take the seat home for his own. Mary Peltola, a former U.S. representative, offers Democrats a strong option for the Senate in Alaska. And in Maine, Democrats think Graham Platner could unseat longtime GOP incumbent Susan Collins.
Democrats want to hold on to an open seat in Michigan and New Hampshire. They also hope to win back Ohio through longtime elected official and former U.S. senator Sherrod Brown, who loses in 2024. Favorable headwinds are also causing Democrats to look to more unlikely places like Iowa, Nebraska and Texas.
Georgia – likely to remain Democratic
The general election race in Georgia has yet to be determined, but Ossoff is well-polled for re-election and has a massive war chest for the contest. Ossoff, 39, took office in 2021, as did Democratic senator Raphael Warnock, and led the Senate to a tie that year.
In May, two Republican candidates advanced to the June runoff: Mike Collins, backed by Trump, and Derek Dooley, backed by Georgia governor Brian Kemp.
North Carolina – likely the Democratic choice
Cooper is a longtime state politician in the Southern Swing state, most recently serving two terms as governor, which ends in 2025.
Tillis, one of the rare Republicans who stood against Trump on important issues, decided not to run for re-election. If Trump wanted to win re-election, he would try to support Tillis’ main rival.
Michael Whatley, who chairs the Republican National Committee from 2024-25, won the Republican primary and was endorsed by Trump.
Cooper runs ahead of Whatley most surveysand outperformed Democratic presidential candidates in gubernatorial races in the years when Trump captured the state.
Cook Political Report says The North Carolina race is tilted Democratic, and it’s the seat most likely to be flipped by Democrats, with Cooper saying he’s the “strongest candidate” for Democrats in the state.
New Hampshire – leans Democratic
Democrat Jeanne Shaheen served three terms in the Senate but declined to run again this year.
Democrats have advantage in race with Cook Political Report saying the race goes to the Democrats. But the political mix in the blue-leaning state gives hope to Republicans: Although represented by all Democrats in D.C., Republicans control the state level and Republican Kelly Ayotte serves as governor.
The primary won’t be held until September, one of the last in the midterm cycle. While representative Chris Pappas is leading on the Democratic side, there is a more crowded field on the right. John Sununu, also a former senator and brother of former governor Chris Sununu. He leads the crowd on the right and is supported by Trump. Another former U.S. senator, Scott Brown, is also in the race.
Michigan – launch
Democratic senator Gary Peters is retiring, leaving Democrats forced to defend an open seat in the state that Trump narrowly won in 2024.
Michigan is home to one of the most contentious Democratic primaries in the country: U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, state senator Mallory McMorrow and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed.
The war in Gaza and outside funding from pro-Israel groups have intensified the race, and as three candidates presented their cases to voters, cracks within the Democratic party were exposed. Stevens is seen as a moderate and El-Sayed as a progressive; McMorrow is somewhere in between. The primary election will be held on August 4.
Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is running for Senate in 2024, is running for the open seat on the right.
Cook Political Report calls Michigan is “the GOP’s best opportunity to flip the seat and deal a serious blow to the Democrats’ majority math.”
Maine – launch into the air
Democrats could finally—perhaps—unseat Sen. Susan Collins, a moderate Republican who has been a thorn in her own party’s side but has managed to hold on to her seat in a state that has consistently voted against Trump. A win in the state is key to a Democratic Senate.
The Democratic primary saw a new candidate, Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who described himself as a populist everyman, and for a time included Democratic governor Janet Mills; he too later suspended his campaign after it became clear that Platner would win the primary.
Platner, a Marine Corps veteran, attracted great attention outside And in He ran for state because of his populist attitude. anti-oligarch messages and therefore controversial comments Open social media and a Nazi matching tattooThis issue, which Platner initially said he did not understand, has since been covered up.
Ohio – launch
Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic U.S. senator from a red state, is seeking a return to the Senate, where he served from 2007 until his 2024 election defeat against Republican Bernie Moreno, a tough year for Democrats.
This time, Brown’s brand of economic populism will be effective for Republicans in an election that will focus heavily on pocket money issues amid rising fuel prices and higher gas prices due to the Iran war.
Cook Political Report odds He noted that Brown would be seen as more of an incumbent in the race than actual U.S. senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the post in 2025 after J.D. Vance became vice president.
Texas – leans Republican
Could a Democrat finally win a Senate seat in Texas? It would be a coup, but with Paxton’s win and his sordid list of responsibilities, national Democrats see some hope in Talarico.
Cook Political Report affected The race, likely from Republican to weak Republican after Paxton’s primary victory, said Democrats are “undeniably better positioned with Paxton as the GOP nominee” than they would be if incumbent senator John Cornyn won.
Talarico spoke to Cornyn supporters after Paxton’s win, telling them: “You have a place in our campaign.”
Paxton and national Republicans have tried to brand Talarico as soft (call him “Low T Talarico”) and for not being able to keep up with the Texans, some people, including Trump advisor Stephen Miller, are attacking Talarico. anti-trans messages (Talarico is not trans). Talarico adopted one of his taunts, Talafreako, and turned it into campaign merchandise.
Alaska – leans Republican
Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, won the 2022 election through the state’s ranked-choice voting system; This was the first Democratic victory for the state’s U.S. House seat since 1972.
He lost his re-election bid in 2024, where he lost by a much smaller margin than Biden won, in a sign of crossover appeal. Now, the moderate Democrat and former tribal judge is running for new unrest in the right-leaning state.
He will run against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, who has served in the chamber since 2015 and is supported by Trump.
Cook Political Report says the seat is tilted toward Republicans. of Peltola first ad The race focused on how Alaskans “stick together” and how Peltola will support them; this appealed to cross-partisan voters. A man in the video says: “Mary’s boots were on the ground, on the riverbank, in the mud, just like us Alaskans. She gets it.”
Nebraska – wildcard
It would be a major upset, but Democrats in the Cornhusker state have placed their stakes on an independent candidate, hoping Dan Osborn can unseat incumbent Republican senator Pete Ricketts in his second race for the U.S. Senate seat.
In a strange turn of events, Democrat Cindy Burbank won her party’s primary by pledging to drop out of the race, clearing the way for Osborn to face Ricketts one-on-one.
Osborn, the unionized machinist, came closer than expected by running against Deb Fischer in 2024, spreading the message of “rural populism.” Even though the national outlook for Republicans is worse this year, Ricketts should be a tougher opponent against Osborn.
Trump won in 2024 with 59 percent of the vote, but because Nebraska distributed its electoral college votes by congressional district, one vote went to Kamala Harris, breaking a more than four-decade streak of Democrats not getting an electoral vote from the state.
Iowa – wildcard
Iowa Democrats will vote between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls in early June, which could affect national Democrats’ perspective on the race in November.
The Senate seat opened up after incumbent Joni Ernst decided not to run again, a few months after commenting “Yes, we’re all going to die” in response to a question about the dire consequences of Trump’s big, beautiful bill’s Medicaid cuts.
Paralympian Turek won in a Trump-backed district, while Wahls, who gained national attention as a young man with a speech about his two mothers, represents a deep-blue part of the state.
National groups have spent big so far to support Turek, seeing him as a better bet in a red-leaning state given his record of winning in a Trump-friendly legislative district.
Former broadcaster Ashley Hinson is expected to win the Republican primary easily.
