Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress | Israel-Gaza war

Progress on the Gaza peace plan has stalled due to disagreements over how Hamas should be disarmed; Israel threatened to return to all-out war if this was not met quickly.

The second phase of the US-brokered ceasefire, which Washington announced began in January, included the disarmament of Hamas, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the relocation of the interim Palestinian administration to Gaza, backed by the Palestinian police force and the international stabilization force. (ISF).

However, the order of the 20-item plan, which is expected to be overseen by Donald Trump’s newly convened Peace Board, is unclear.

The Israeli government is first pressing for the complete disarmament of Hamas, and Israeli officials have been briefing reporters that the United States will soon set a 60-day deadline for this to be completed.

“It is estimated that in the coming days Hamas will be given an ultimatum to disarm and completely demilitarize Gaza,” far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich told public radio on Monday, adding that the ultimatum would come from Washington.

The minister said that if Hamas did not comply, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would “receive international legitimacy and American support to do this on its own.”

Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar reportedly told Israel’s security cabinet on Sunday that he would deliver Trump’s ultimatum to Hamas within a few days. But the US president did not address the issue in his State of the Union address Tuesday night. He claimed responsibility for the return of the bodies of Israeli hostages and did not even mention the Peace Board, which he hailed four days ago as a historic turning point.

Even if the disarmament campaign is announced, it is not clear who can buy Hamas weapons within 60 days. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a group of 15 non-aligned Palestinian technocrats, has met in Cairo to prepare to govern the devastated region, but is still a long way from stepping into Gaza.

NCAG will present Hamas with a six-month disarmament plan in March, starting with heavy weapons and ending with light firearms, according to a report in the right-wing newspaper Israel Hayom on Tuesday. Initially, Hamas would have to hand over an inventory of its heavy weapons and a map of the tunnel network it had dug in Gaza.

The Israel Hayom account quotes anonymous sources and covers what Israel is talking about. Rival militias, armed clans and gangs will be disarmed only after Hamas, and every other step in the second phase will be contingent on prior disarmament. The report included sources who said that if disarmament was not achieved, Israel would have full international support to return to its attack on Gaza.

“It seems more like wishful thinking than a serious plan,” said Michael Milshtein, director of the Palestine Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies and a former colonel in military intelligence.

NCAG is far from ready to enter Gaza. Funding has been slow to come and he is unable to enter the occupied territory without security arrangements. A police force is being trained to serve under the committee, but Israel vets potential recruits and vetoes those serving in the Gaza police under Hamas, arguing they are tainted by association. Several thousand police officers have been trained in Jordan and Egypt, but this is generally seen as an inadequate force for Gaza’s population of 2.2 million after two years of devastating bombardment.

Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Albania have offered troops for the planned 20,000-strong ISF and preparations are underway for a large barracks south of Gaza, but the force’s mandate has not been agreed upon and troop contributors do not want their soldiers to be tasked with taking Hamas’ weapons away from them.

Analysts said Hamas would almost certainly reject the disarmament plan described in Israeli media because it required Israel to surrender its weapons, the group’s main asset, without any guarantee that Israel would withdraw or other groups would disarm, leaving Hamas members potentially vulnerable to armed rivals during the transition to NCAG rule.

“The details in the Israel Hayom report will be immediately rejected by Hamas,” said Muhammad Shehada, a Gaza analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s basically asking them to gradually surrender everything. Hamas is more likely to agree to freeze, lock and decommission offensive weapons (e.g. rockets) while retaining light weapons to protect themselves against clans and gangs or if the IDF resumes military operations.”

“Small weapons will be subject to a strict non-use and non-disclosure policy; anyone showing a weapon in public will be arrested by the NCAG police,” Shehada added.

The Peace Board held its first working meeting in Washington on Thursday last week, but the meeting did not seem to provide much clarity on the issue of disarmament.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are said to be discussing a disarmament process modeled on the Northern Ireland peace agreement that would include the gradual disarmament of all paramilitary groups, overseen by an independent commission.

Shehada said the United Arab Emirates stands with Israel in demanding the complete disarmament of Hamas as a precondition for other steps. This, he argued, was a recipe for a return to all-out war.

“Netanyahu is doing his best to collapse the second phase and continue military operations,” Shehada said. “He is doing the same thing he did in Iran, making maximalist demands to get Hamas/Iran to say no, then convincing Trump that the military option is the only way.”

Hamas’ belief that Israel is determined to return to war reportedly strengthens its resolve to stick to its guns.

Israeli times Referring to a message sent by the Hamas leadership in Gaza to the politburo in Qatar, he said the group should be “ready to fight the Israel Defense Forces again as it is convinced that Israel will reoccupy Hamas-held areas.”

The same report referred to “a source with knowledge of Israel’s thoughts” and stated that Israel tried to convince Trump that the disarmament of Hamas could win him the long-awaited Nobel peace prize.

In his last statements; Smotrich clearly stated He expects disarmament to fail, opening the door to Israel’s complete conquest of Gaza. “In the end, Israel will occupy the Gaza Strip, implement a military government and establish Jewish settlements there,” he said, adding: “It doesn’t matter if it happens in a year, two years, or three years.”

HA Hellyer, a senior partner at the Royal United Services Institute, said Israel’s approach would almost guarantee the collapse of the 20-point plan.

“The process has been made contingent on the disarmament of Hamas, otherwise everything else is temporarily postponed until Israel decides to return to full-scale war.” Hellyer said in X:. “This is not a situation that will lead to positive outcomes.”