Donald Trump pushes half-measure deal as his China trip looms
Washington: It was about three weeks ago, April 17; Donald Trump had announced that Iran “accepted everything it wanted” and pointed out that the war was almost over with his social media posts and interviews.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Galibaf, a key negotiator for the regime, responded by saying Trump had made seven claims in just one hour, and they were all false.
Galibaf seems closer to the target. Three weeks later, Trump’s hopes for a deal to end the war are now limited to a one-page memorandum that would trigger another 30 days of negotiation on the details.
The existence of the document was widely reported in American news outlets on Wednesday (US time) after Barak Ravid first reported it in 2013. axiosHe stated that it contains 14 points. Iran was ready to respond officially.
This imprint did not see the so-called memorandum. Accordingly Wall StreetJournalHe insists that Iran prove it is not seeking nuclear weapons, dismantle its three main nuclear facilities (or what remains of them), and be subject to voluntary inspections with penalties attached. The US reportedly wants a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment, but this is not a red line.
Meanwhile, Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports will be gradually loosened together.
Frankly, a one-page list of bullet points is more like a meeting agenda than a proper peace agreement. Even if agreement is reached in the coming hours or days, it is doubtful it will carry much weight or provide a meaningful solution.
Trump is as optimistic as ever about the possibility of such a deal. Flanked on either side by Ultimate Fighting Championship athletes, he said in the Oval Office that talks with Iran were going positively, despite the regime’s attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. Gulf allies just two days earlier.
“A few days ago, it was a long time ago in the world of war,” Trump said. “We have had very good discussions in the last 24 hours and it is very likely that we will make a deal.”
He said there was no deadline but threatened in a social media post to restart the bombing “at a much higher level and intensity than before.”
Trump once again welcomed the idea of withdrawing US forces from the region without a definitive agreement. “If we leave now, it will take them 20 years to rebuild,” he said. “They want to make a very bad deal, and we’ll see if we can get there.”
It makes more sense for Iranians to accept a one-page framework that doesn’t tie them to anything and saves time. The real question is why the United States, which only a few weeks ago claimed that Tehran had “accepted everything”, was pushing this half-measure.
The answer may lie in the fact that Trump is heading to Beijing to see Chinese President Xi Jinping in seven days; This event is what most analysts portray as the most important event of his second term so far.
This risky meeting had already been postponed once due to the war. Postponing again is almost unthinkable, especially this close to the date.
But it is also unacceptable that Trump came to the Great People’s Meeting because of a complex and unresolved conflict and actually asked Xi for help persuading the Iranians to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro explained what this situation will mean.
“In the background, China will press its global campaign to portray the United States as the cause of instability and itself as the responsible adult,” he said in X.
“Overall, if Trump goes to Beijing while the war is still unresolved or even escalated, his position and influence at the top will be significantly weakened. The Iranians know this, too. That’s why they are lowering the terms to end the war to a much more modest level than Trump had originally envisaged.”
It’s also possible that Trump wants to spend his very limited time in Beijing talking trade rather than asking for Xi’s help on the strait.
During talks between Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers in Beijing on Wednesday, Beijing’s top diplomat Wang Yi called on “parties involved” to immediately restore “normal and safe passage” through the strait.
Ironically, opening this waterway has now become Trump’s most pressing issue after calling it irrelevant to US interests just a few weeks ago.
This isn’t necessarily a bad outcome for the rest of the world, including Australia; a rough concept of agreement that at least begins to reopen the strait and leaves the rest for later.
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Michael Koziol is the North America correspondent for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. He is a former Sydney editor, Sun-Herald deputy editor and a federal political correspondent in Canberra.Connect with: X or email.
