El Nino could spark ‘milder, wetter and windier’ UK autumn, Met Office warns

The Met Office said the UK could experience “milder, wetter and windier weather” this autumn and early winter as the El Nino climate pattern settles.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed this event on Thursday and described it as a warming in the part of the Pacific Ocean near the equator that affects global weather systems.

Meteorologists have warned that this El Niño could match or even surpass the powerful event of 1997-1998 that caused widespread droughts, floods and other natural disasters around the world.

Met Office climate spokesman Grahame Madge described El Niño as a “major event” and “probably one of the strongest events we’ve had in the last decade”.

But Mr Madge said links between this Pacific event and its potential impact on the UK were “far from certain” and that El Niño was “just one of the climate factors influencing weather patterns”.

Mr Madge said: “Usually when we experience El Niño, there can be an increased chance of more unstable conditions later in the year, including the possibility of milder, wetter and windier weather in the autumn and early winter.

“And sometimes El Niño can also be associated with colder, calmer late winter periods.”

The Met Office said it was “highly likely” that El Niño would cause a temporary rise in global annual temperature and that residual heat would “potentially make next year the hottest year in the global series since 1850”.

Mr Madge said: “There is a pattern of regional differences underlying this.

“Because of the way global weather patterns work, some places may be warmer, some may not be as hot, or even colder.”

El Niño usually occurs sporadically every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months.

The risk of drier conditions increases in Indonesia, Australia, India, and parts of central and equatorial South America, while wetter conditions are likely in some other parts of South America and the southern United States.

The Met Office said a major El Niño is now on the way and will “continue and grow throughout the remainder of the year” but there is “significant uncertainty about how intense the event may ultimately be”.

Warming in the Pacific is changing atmospheric circulation, including the location of the jet stream and the distribution of tropical precipitation, and these changes can alter storm tracks and affect temperatures and precipitation thousands of miles away.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “Met Office forecasts have been signaling for some time that this latest El Niño is likely to be a significant event – ​​perhaps one of the most intense on record – with the potential to bring serious impacts to many parts of the world as the event progresses.

“It is also quite possible that El Niño will cause a temporary increase in global annual temperature, with residual heat potentially making next year the warmest year in the global series since 1850.”

El Niño could put the UK’s food imports under further pressure from climate impacts, with farmers producing supermarket staples in poor countries increasingly unable to work due to heat stress.

Agricultural workers producing supermarket staples such as rice, coffee, tea and chocolate are facing increasingly difficult working conditions as climate change leads to record-breaking global temperatures, according to an analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

In a report published on Monday, ECIU researchers said developing countries, which are the most exposed and least resilient to global weathering, are the source of 13% of the UK’s food imports worth £8.9bn in 2025.

Shamika Mone, a rice farmer in India and president of the Intercontinental Organic Farmers Network, said: “Extreme heat makes the already difficult task of farming even more difficult.

“There are real fears that hotter, drier weather caused by a Super El Niño could damage harvests.

“To protect our food system, governments need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including from fertilizer production, and provide more climate finance directly to small farmers and their organizations so they can adapt.”

Dr D., a climate scientist who most recently presented at the British Antarctic Survey. Ella Gilbert said: “If the warming climate is loading the dice towards more extreme events, then El Niño is also ratcheting up the weight.

“A developing El Niño will raise global temperatures and disrupt supply chains, placing further pressure on UK families already reeling from the escalating cost of living crisis.”