How long before Iran breaks under crushing US pressure?
The US naval blockade and increasing economic pressure are tightening the screws on Iran’s already fragile economy. But despite the visible tensions, Iran is showing that it can withstand a protracted conflict. The Iranian military said that the US-Israeli war will probably continue and that they are “fully ready for any new adventures or stupidities of the Americans.”
The real question now is not whether Iran is suffering, but how long it can endure that suffering before it is forced to change course.
Also Read | Iran balances oil cuts, storage shortages to resist US blockade
New American strategy
The Trump administration now calls Operation Epic Rage Operation Economic Rage. His approach is based on the familiar premise that sustained economic pressure could force Iran to concede the point where diplomacy alone has failed. The latest measures go beyond traditional sanctions and include warnings that even third-party shipping companies passing through the Strait of Hormuz could face penalties if they pay transit fees to Iran. This effectively internationalizes the pressure campaign and increases the risks to global shipping and energy markets.
The Economic Rage campaign has already disrupted “tens of billions of dollars in revenue,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X. Bessent also said Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, is nearing storage capacity and could soon cause production cuts, which could cost the regime about $170 million a day in additional lost revenue.
A senior administration official told Fox News Digital that the Treasury is aggressively expanding “Economic Rage” beyond traditional sanctions by targeting Iran’s ability to generate, move and repatriate funds through oil, banking, cryptocurrency and secret trading networks. The Treasury has cut off billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenue in recent days alone, including freezing half a billion dollars in regime-linked cryptocurrency, but also increasing pressure on Chinese “teapot” refineries, foreign banks and sanctions evasion networks that facilitate Tehran’s trade, the official said.
But economic war is rarely decisive in the short term. Iran has spent decades adapting to sanctions, creating informal trade networks, and developing a resistance economy designed to absorb shocks.
Also Read | Iranian military official says new war with US ‘likely’
Iran’s economic trouble
There is no doubt that the Iranian economy is under serious pressure. Axios reported that the Department of Defense estimates that Iran has been deprived of approximately $5 billion in oil revenues due to the U.S. blockade. 31 tankers carrying a total of 53 million barrels of Iranian oil are “stranded in the Gulf” and are worth at least $4.8 billion. The USA seized two ships. Iran, which could not fill new tankers with oil because the capacity of its land storage facilities was full, started using old tankers as floating warehouses. Officials told Axios that some tankers were “taking a costlier, longer route to transport oil to China out of fear of a U.S. maritime ban.” Oil exports remain the backbone of government revenue, and any sustained cuts would directly impact the state’s ability to fund subsidies, salaries and military operations.
Unemployment has increased amid ongoing conflict; this reflects both wartime disruptions and structural weaknesses. Inflation, already a chronic problem, will likely worsen as supply chains tighten and currency pressures increase.
Iran’s economy was in dire straits even before the conflict. According to CNN’s report, per capita national income dropped from approximately $8,000 in 2012 to $5,000 in 2024; this state was devastated by inflation, corruption and sanctions. The outlook is even worse. According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), as many as 4.1 million more people could fall into poverty due to conflict. According to UNDP, the physical damage caused by thousands of air strikes caused widespread displacement. According to media outlet EcoIran, more than 23,000 factories and companies were affected. Gholamhossein Mohammadi, Iran’s Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Security, says this has directly cost one million jobs. The spread has left another million people unemployed, Iranian broadcaster Etemad Online estimates.
The annual inflation rate reached 72% in March, but it was much higher for basic needs, according to official data.
Former Treasury sanctions analyst Miad Maleki argues that the United States may now wield its greatest influence over Iran since the 1979 revolution. “Never in the history of our conflict since 1979 have we had the level of influence against Iran that we have today,” Maleki told Fox New Digital. According to Maleki, what makes this moment different is not just the sanctions; combination of sanctions, naval blockade and aggressive secondary sanctions. He said Iran’s already fragile economy – marked by 104 percent food inflation and a nearly 90 percent collapse in purchasing power – could face economic losses of around $435 million per day if shipping restrictions continue.
Before the conflict, Iran exported about 2 million barrels of oil per day, but current exports appear to be closer to 1 million barrels per day, with an estimated 1 million barrels per day piling up in storage, Court Smith, Kpler’s president of deals and partnerships, told FOX Business’s Lauren Simonetti. While Smith estimated that Iran may have about 30 days before onshore storage faces severe capacity constraints under current conditions, he cautioned that older fields or marginal wells may already be facing early closure pressures.
Why might Iran last longer than expected?
Despite the apparent economic damage, several factors suggest Iran may hold out longer than the United States estimates. Economic hardship may not automatically translate into political capitulation. Iran’s leadership has historically demonstrated a high tolerance for internal challenges and has often prioritized strategic goals over economic aid.
Iran’s political system is structured to withstand external pressures. Power is concentrated among institutions that are less sensitive to popular dissatisfaction than democratic governments. This reduces the immediate risk of civil collapse even if economic conditions worsen.
Additionally, Iran has experience operating under sanctions. He developed alternative trade channels, including barter arrangements and secret oil sales. Although less efficient, these mechanisms provide sufficient revenue to maintain basic state functions. The global context is also important. Rising energy prices and inflation are already affecting countries far beyond the conflict zone. This puts indirect pressure on the United States and its allies, potentially weakening their resolve to maintain a long-term blockade.
“The blockade will not force Iran to surrender,” Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, told Fox News Digital. “This country has been under sanctions since 1979… they know how to make adjustments,” he added.
Alireza Nader, an independent Iranian analyst based in Washington, told Fox News Digital that economic pressure alone would not force a strategic inflection point, arguing that Iran’s leadership has repeatedly shown that it is willing to allow ordinary citizens to endure extraordinary suffering to maintain power. “The regime cares about staying in power,” he said, warning that social problems will not necessarily turn into vulnerability.
“The regime is not only dependent on oil and energy exports to survive, it has other sources of income,” said Nader, adding, “Oil and natural gas are its biggest sources of income, but I think this regime has calculated that it can withstand even months of economic siege because it may think that the Trump administration is more vulnerable to political pressure.”
“Look,” he added, “American voters vote for the president and do not vote for the president. In Iran, no one votes and leaves. The regime maintains its power with brutal force. If there are social unrest, if there are new uprisings, the regime will try to deal with them, as it has killed thousands of people in the past by using mass violence. This is how this regime stays in power.” Citrinowicz warned that Iran could escalate tensions regionally or take advantage of global energy weaknesses long before the forces of economic collapse capitulate, potentially driving oil prices sharply higher and creating international political pressure before Tehran truly breaks.
Although the United States has significant economic power, its strategy is not without risks. Trump’s comments that the United States might be “better off” without a deal suggest a desire to prolong the gap, but time cuts both ways. It may take weeks or longer for the blockade to exert maximum pressure. Even then, its effectiveness depends on sanctions and international cooperation. The impact may ease if other countries find ways around the restrictions. The current situation points to a long-term stalemate rather than a quick solution. Both sides show resilience. They can tolerate this stalemate even if the rest of the world suffers the effects of the economic crisis.
