Extraordinary Caerphilly by-election humbles Westminster’s big beasts

Amid the overnight blizzard caused by any by-election, three people stand out in Caerphilly this morning.

Labor, long the winner of many political contests in south Wales, has been humbled, beaten, crushed; attracted only 11% of voters.

The Conservatives win most elections across the UK: 2%.

Yes, you read that right; The two great beasts of Westminster politics managed just 13% of the vote between them.

Only one in seven voters backed either Labor or the Conservatives, which is extraordinary.

The weeks-long contest was a contest between an outfit called Reform UK, which didn’t exist until just a few years ago, and Plaid Cymru, hitherto the permanent bridesmaids of the competitions in Caerphilly.

Between them, Plaid and Reform received 83% of the vote, with Plaid easily beating Nigel Farage’s party.

As is often the case in electoral contests, there is a striking human story that illustrates the broader picture.

Today’s winner, Lindsay Whittle, a Plaid Cymru councilor for almost half a century, said she remembered standing in the crowd as a 15-year-old party newbie in Caerphilly in 1968.

The party then came very close to unseating Labor by election at Westminster.

But the thing is, they didn’t, they came second.

Defeat at the hands of Labor was something Whittle was well accustomed to; He stood for Westminster elections ten times and stood for Cardiff Bay elections several times. He had always lost so far.

Now in his 70s, he is enjoying victory for the first time.

Speaking to senior figures at Plaid, there is a sense, and there has been for some time, that the tide may finally be turning in favor of Labor in Wales.

They are determined to dream of governing Wales, at least as the main party, after next May’s nationwide Senedd elections.

So what’s next for the Reformation? Taking a solid second place with 36% of the vote is a solid performance for a newcomer, but the rebels remain rebellious by winning and are easily defeated.

It’s clearly not easy for them to be the first choice of a “none of the above” alternative to Labor and the Conservatives when there is another party taking on the mantle.

This is a challenge for them in Wales, as it is for the SNP in Scotland, in a sense it’s a challenge that doesn’t exist in England.

And then there are the consequences for Labour.

Labour’s legacy in these areas includes some of the most important figures in its long history: founding father Keir Hardie, NHS founder Nye Bevan, former leaders Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock.

This morning it looks more likely than ever that Labor will suffer a heavy defeat in Wales next May – ending 27 years of continuous power.

Questions are also piling up for the Prime Minister.