Less than meets the eye to Starmer’s words on Brexit

This was perhaps the moment that cemented Sir Keir Starmer’s position as the future leader of the Labor Party more than any other.

Defying leader Jeremy Corbyn and the robocall, the then shadow Brexit secretary sent the 2018 Labor Party conference into a frenzy. Calls for second EU referendum with UK The ballot paper also includes the option to remain in the block.

Labor soon backed a second referendum. In the 2019 election, the Conservatives won a landslide victory, at least by the standards of the day. Britain left the EU. Weeks later Starmer became leader of the Labor Party. And he mostly stopped talking about Brexit.

It could not have been clearer in last year’s general election.

Yes, he wanted to “reset” the course of Britain’s relations with the EU. Yes, there were areas where the Brexit deal negotiated by the Conservatives could be improved.

But no, the traces of the post-Brexit solution agreed by Theresa May in 2016 (outside the single market, outside the customs union) will not change.

This is the approach this government has taken while in office and as a result New EU-UK agreement in May.

So it was striking that on Monday Starmer went out of his way to say he wanted to go further, on not one, not two, but three separate occasions.

“We must face the fact that the failed Brexit deal has significantly damaged our economy.” The Prime Minister wrote in The Guardian.

“One element of our economic renewal will be to continue moving towards closer trade relations with the EU.”

In his speech that morning he warmed to the theme: “We must continue to move towards a closer relationship with the EU.”

And speaking at the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet on Monday evening, she expanded on her remarks again.

“The Brexit vote was a fair, democratic statement and I will always respect that. But the way it was sold and delivered was wrong,” the Prime Minister said.

“Mad promises were made to the British people but left unfulfilled. We are still dealing with the consequences on our economy today.”

A consistent message then. So what to make of this?

The answer as it stands now is that there is less to all of this than meets the eye.

At Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Starmer reaffirmed his commitment to the basic architecture of the Brexit deal and said staying outside the single market and customs union were “clear red lines”.

A senior government source said the prime minister was only trying on Monday to lay the groundwork for smaller, more specific areas where the UK and EU hope to engage in coming months.

This is not a “one and done” moment for May’s deal, the source said. Many details of the closer relations committed at that time are still subject to negotiation. For example, talks between officials on details of agreements on food controls and carbon tariffs began in the past two weeks.

Perhaps more notable are the long-running talks over how a youth mobility scheme would work and whether British universities could rejoin the EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme.

In other words, those in the government say the Prime Minister is simply trying to lay the groundwork for what’s to come in the UK-EU relationship and continues to develop the case for why he believes these closer ties are necessary.

Those who want the government to change its red lines on Brexit were also welcomed this week with the announcement that Nick Thomas-Symonds, the government minister responsible for the UK’s negotiations with Brussels, will join the cabinet.

However, those in the government say this is also over-interpreted. Thomas-Symonds has recently taken on extra responsibilities in the Cabinet Office, including on civil service reform, while fellow minister Darren Jones has also been spending more time helping the prime minister drive his agenda.

Given recent concerns about dissent and loyalty in the cabinet, it seems more logical for Sir Keir to have another close ally like Thomas-Symonds at the cabinet table.

Still, there are those in the government and the Labor Party generally who hope the prime minister can be persuaded to go further on Brexit.

According to a report in The Observer at the weekendSir Keir’s chief economic adviser, Baroness Shafik, is among those in government pushing for the UK to rejoin the customs union, as referenced by Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey at the PMQs.

Others privately admit that they are eyeing rejoining the group customs union As the simplest way to deliver growth to the British economy. This means applying the same tariffs to goods imported from countries around the world as EU members. There are no tariffs applied to trade between countries within the customs union.

A government source familiar with the matter said that even if Sir Keir wanted to rejoin the customs union, it would not be easy. They said the EU might make unwelcome demands on the UK in return, at least initially. Recent talks on Britain joining the EU defense fund have collapsed.

Moreover, joining the customs union would mean that the government would abandon its independent trade policy and therefore abandon the achievements that the prime minister regularly talks about, including a free trade agreement with India and a tariff reduction agreement with the United States.

In any case, would it be politically possible to rejoin the customs union?

Surprising people in the Labor Party think the answer is yes. At the general election, Labor was keen to reassure those who supported Brexit in 2016 that it would not reopen the European question. The party regained most of the seats it lost in 2019.

But an MP representing a ‘red wall’ seat that voted strongly to leave the EU said: “It’s a lot less instinctive than it used to be. I think there’s still quite a bit of room to go, even in constituencies like mine. The single market is a non-starter because you’re reopening the immigration issue.”

“But there is room to rejoin the customs union. This is about trade. Nobody will object to better trade.”

A cabinet minister agreed: “Voters don’t really care about Brexit anymore.”

Some in Labor believe voters who still care about Brexit include progressives whom the party risks losing to the Greens or Liberal Democrats at the next general election.

They see a much closer relationship with the EU as a way to reassure voters in the Labor coalition as well as drawing a sharp political dividing line with Reform UK and the Conservatives.

Polls also show that the majority of people now believe it was wrong for Britain to leave the EU.

The cabinet minister said: “Brexit is like the Iraq War. Lots of people supported it then but you won’t find anyone admitting it now.”