Finnish president plays down warnings of potential Russian attack but says ‘prepare for the worst so you can avoid it’– Europe live | France
‘Prepare for the worst so you can avoid it,’ Finnish president says as he plays down Tusk’s warnings about potential Russian attack in months
In the meantime, let’s check in on what’s happening in Helsinki where Finland’s president Alexander Stubb – often dubbed as Europe’s Trump whisperer because of his close relationship with the US president – is hosting his Estonian counterpart Alar Karis.
The leaders are facing questions about Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk’s comments in the FT from late last week (£), suggesting that a Russian attack on some Nato countries in Europe could come in months, not years.
But it’s probably fair to say they are both not entirely convinced by Tusk’s alarmist claims.
Finland’s Stubb says:
“We work on different type of scenarios, but I come back to the stay cool, calm, and collected [message]. I don’t see an incentive for Russia to test Nato’s Article 5.
There will be always hybrid tests, I don’t deny that. But if you look at the eastern flank, starting from north-east, north-eastern Scandinavia, Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, then down to Ukraine, I don’t think there will be a test.”
He then says the Americans “are telling us it is for Europe to take more responsibility for our own defence” and to shift conventional forces burden sharing from “60-40 US Europe to probably more closer to 50-50.”
“Where then it’s going to end up, we don’t know. But I do think it’s a good thing that many other European countries are now starting to spend sufficient amounts on their defence,” he says.
He says European countries should draw a lesson from “the Finnish mentality: don’t faff too much about what might happen; prepare for the worst so you can avoid it.”
Karis adds:
“I’m pretty much convinced that the US presence in Europe is as important for the US as [is for us as] well. So we should work on it make sure that the troops remain on the ground at the same time we should put more money on defence in Europe.”
On Tusk’s warnings, he says:
“These ideas that who’s next, Estonia’s next, or the Baltics are next, or Finland is next… these narratives come and go, it’s not the first time … this is a tactic of the Russian Federation to make us a bit anxious but we should stay calm as it’s for an very common the Nordic people.”
Key events
Macron backs Andorra’s association agreement with EU
Back to Andorra, Macron is now speaking during a ceremonial sitting at the Casa de la Vall, the historical seat of the local parliament.
He speaks about the importance of looking at crises around us and rejecting “the temptation of withdrawal,” but instead of seeking new partnership to strengthen itself, as he hails Andorra’s transition “from an agrarian economy to a thriving service sector, but without ever renouncing its roots.”
On Andorra’s relationship with the EU, he says he is committed to making that relationship closer, as he says that “the European space is, in essence, Andorra’s natural space.”
He also specifically endorsed Andorra’s association agreement with the EU at an earlier meeting with students.
On other political issues, he’s more vague, as he says he is “aware” of “ongoing debates,” and says that the country’s institutions “must remain attentive to the everyday expectations of Andorran citizens,” referencing housing among other issues.
But we are likely to hear from him again later today.
‘Public secret’ that Iran war causes delays to stock deliveries to Europe, Finland and Estonia’s leaders confirm
Separately, Finland’s Stubb confirms that Europe faces some delays in stock deliveries from the US as a result of the Middle East war.
He says:
“It is a public secret that some of the stocks and delivered systems in the US are either going elsewhere or being delayed. But I don’t see any need for alarm here in Finland.”
Estonia’s Karis confirms this, too:
“We are in a same position in the sense I know that there is a delay – it is probably a question to our minister of defence what kind of missiles or ammunition we are missing – but as far as I know, its [tactical ballistic missiles] Himars.
But it’s a signal that in Estonia and in Europe in general, we should much much faster develop our defence industry, not relying on different countries in the world.”
‘Prepare for the worst so you can avoid it,’ Finnish president says as he plays down Tusk’s warnings about potential Russian attack in months
In the meantime, let’s check in on what’s happening in Helsinki where Finland’s president Alexander Stubb – often dubbed as Europe’s Trump whisperer because of his close relationship with the US president – is hosting his Estonian counterpart Alar Karis.
The leaders are facing questions about Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk’s comments in the FT from late last week (£), suggesting that a Russian attack on some Nato countries in Europe could come in months, not years.
But it’s probably fair to say they are both not entirely convinced by Tusk’s alarmist claims.
Finland’s Stubb says:
“We work on different type of scenarios, but I come back to the stay cool, calm, and collected [message]. I don’t see an incentive for Russia to test Nato’s Article 5.
There will be always hybrid tests, I don’t deny that. But if you look at the eastern flank, starting from north-east, north-eastern Scandinavia, Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, then down to Ukraine, I don’t think there will be a test.”
He then says the Americans “are telling us it is for Europe to take more responsibility for our own defence” and to shift conventional forces burden sharing from “60-40 US Europe to probably more closer to 50-50.”
“Where then it’s going to end up, we don’t know. But I do think it’s a good thing that many other European countries are now starting to spend sufficient amounts on their defence,” he says.
He says European countries should draw a lesson from “the Finnish mentality: don’t faff too much about what might happen; prepare for the worst so you can avoid it.”
Karis adds:
“I’m pretty much convinced that the US presence in Europe is as important for the US as [is for us as] well. So we should work on it make sure that the troops remain on the ground at the same time we should put more money on defence in Europe.”
On Tusk’s warnings, he says:
“These ideas that who’s next, Estonia’s next, or the Baltics are next, or Finland is next… these narratives come and go, it’s not the first time … this is a tactic of the Russian Federation to make us a bit anxious but we should stay calm as it’s for an very common the Nordic people.”
Just checking in on Macron in Andorra, just look at how happy he is there!
I keep an eye on his visit there, but so far the ceremonial part mostly involves walking around (the beautiful) Andorra and high-fiving people.
His speech is expected later today
Gunman opens fire at two locations in Athens, leaving at least five people injured
I am also keeping an eye on an incident in Athens where a gunman – identified locally as an 89-year old man – opened fire at a social security office and a courthouse in the city centre.
At least five people are reported to have suffered minor injuries.
State broadcaster ERT said that the gunman – who remains at large – had reportedly thrown envelopes with documents on to the floor after the shooting at the courthouse, saying those were the reasons for his actions, AP reported.
Media freedom ‘under sustained attack’ across EU as public trust drops, report finds
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
Journalists in the EU face increasing levels of harassment, threats and violence, while news outlets are owned by a shrinking number of proprietors and public trust in the media has plummeted, a report has found.
The Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties) said the findings of its fifth annual media freedom report, released on Tuesday, should place EU officials “on high alert”, with media freedom and pluralism “under sustained attack” across mainland Europe.
Europe’s leading civil liberties group also warned public media independence was being steadily eroded by political interference and budget cuts, and journalists were being increasingly hampered by restrictions on free expression and access to information.
“A healthy, pluralistic media system is a litmus test and mirror of democracy,” said Eva Simon, Liberties’ senior advocacy officer. “Where the rule of law weakens – through deliberate government action or neglect – media freedom is undermined.”
Journalist safety in particular reached what the report called “a crisis point” in Europe in 2025, with reporters and media workers facing “extreme physical violence and systemic legal harassment”, including bomb attacks targeting investigative reporters.
Jakub Krupa
As we wait for Macron’s speech, let’s bring you some other news from around Europe.
Meanwhile, Macron is visiting the Andorran primary school in Santa Coloma and absolutely loving spending his time with kids, happily posing to pictures with the Andorran flags.
Last week, he suggested he would quit politics at the end of his term in May next year, and so we should expect to see more of this sort of legacy-building trips and interventions as he enters the final year in office.
Morning opening: Co-prince Macron visits Andorra
Jakub Krupa
France’s president Emmanuel Macron is in Andorra, performing his duties as the state’s co-prince, alongside the Catholic Bishop of Urgell, Josep-Lluís Serrano Pentinat.
That in itself could be at best a factoid for your next politics geek pub quiz, but – as briefly covered in yesterday’s Europe Live – there is a serious element to it as his visit comes at a time of policy debate on abortion in the country, which continues to have some of the most restrictive laws in Europe.
Radio France International reported that Andorra’s prime minister Xavier Espot Zamora has “indicated he hopes to decriminalise abortion within a year, though not necessarily legalise it,” but the microstate’s governance setup involving a Catholic bishop makes it tricky.
During today’s speech as Andorra’s co-prince, Macron is expected to speak frankly about the issue and back the changes, as well as endorse plans for Andorra to ratify its association agreement with the European Union, which could be done as early as in July.
Last night, Macron raised a toast “from heart” to celebrate Andorra’s unique history and international position, with political talks only taking place behind the closed doors, but today we should hear more.
Andorra’s public broadcaster RTVA reported on Monday that Macron confirmed that abortion would feature in his speech, with the Catholic co-prince conceding that “we must move forward without breaking the institutional seams.” Let’s see what that means.
I will bring you the key lines from Macron’s speech later.
Separately, the European Parliament is expected to discuss the next EU budget, and the European Commission to talk about reforming its regulatory environment.
Again, I will keep an eye on this for you.
It’s Tuesday, 28 April 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
