Bangladesh elections 2026: New Prime Minister after 35 years; how it will impact diplomatic power balance across South Asia | World News

Bangladesh general election (13th parliamentary election) will be held on 12 February 2026. This election is extremely important as it will pave the way for the future of an unstable Bangladesh.

The elections are being held under an interim government with Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus as Chief Advisor. The meeting will be held alongside a national referendum on the July National Charter, which proposes significant constitutional, electoral and institutional reforms.

This is the first election after Hasina’s ouster in August 2024 and Khaleda Zia’s death in December 2025. From 1991 to 2024, these two women dominated Bangladeshi politics and were popularly referred to as the “Begums of Bangladesh”.

Bangladesh was ruled by two Begums for 35 years

Sheikh Hasina (Awami League) and Khaleda Zia (Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP) ruled Bangladesh in a bitter rivalry that defined the country’s two-party system for more than three decades. Khaleda Zia served as Prime Minister between 1991-1996 and 2001-2006, while Sheikh Hasina was in power between 1996-2001 and 2009-2024.

This means the upcoming elections will give Bangladesh a new Prime Minister after 35 years.

Upcoming elections pit established parties against each other in a fragmented field; The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman (son of the late Khaleda Zia) is favored to win or lead a coalition; The Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami was revived after its ban was lifted by the Yunus government, and the student-supported National Citizen Party (NCP) represents anti-establishment sentiments.

Hasina’s party, the Awami League, was barred from participating in the elections after the country’s Election Commission excluded a major pro-India force citing the party’s role in violence during the 2024 student protest, raising questions about the inclusiveness of the polls.

Whoever wins the election, the new prime minister will inherit a polarized society, economic woes (including high inflation and slowing growth) and rising religious tensions.

Bangladesh’s political landscape has witnessed a seismic shift since the student-led uprising in July-August 2024 made Sheikh Hasina, who effectively served as Prime Minister for nearly 20 years in power, the longest-serving leader in the country’s history.

The impact of this choice on B’desh’s foreign policy

According to an Al Jazeera report, experts suggest that these Bangladesh elections have the potential to change diplomatic alliances and the balance of power in South Asia, as well as redefine the country’s politics.

After Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh experienced a significant change in its foreign policy. While relations with India have fallen to their lowest point, relations with Pakistan have improved and strategic cooperation with China has deepened.

The outcome of this election will therefore be vital in determining Bangladesh’s future foreign policy and will have wider implications for South Asia as a whole.

Strained relations with India: Loss of influence for New Delhi

Under Hasina, Bangladesh was a committed ally of India, cooperating on counterterrorism, border security and economic integration, helping stabilize India’s northeastern states and balancing Chinese influence.

Her ouster cooled relations: Dhaka demanded Hasina’s extradition from India (where she fled in August 2024); especially after he was sentenced to death in absentia for protest-related killings in November 2025, but New Delhi rejected him, seeing him as the victim of political vendetta.

Post-Hasina violence against minorities (especially Hindus seen as Awami League supporters) has raised India’s concerns about an Islamist resurgence and led to border tensions and trade disruptions, such as India withdrawing funding for a key logistics hub in April 2025.

Tensions rose in Bangladesh as social media spread provocative content such as maps of “Greater Bangladesh” and references to India’s northeastern states; This debate deepened after Muhammad Yunus described the region as landlocked.

The death of anti-Hasina and anti-India student leader Sharif Osman Hadi further increased anti-India sentiments.

A BNP or Jamaat-led government could further diminish India’s influence, as both parties have historically opposed Hasina’s pro-India stance and may rely on anti-India rhetoric to build domestic support.

This could weaken regional security due to increased risks of cross-border militancy and migration, while also undermining India’s position in forums such as the Quad by exposing weak points in its neighborhood policy.

Warming relations with Pakistan: reviving old alliances

Bangladesh-Pakistan ties, broken since the 1971 war of independence, began to thaw during the interim government period, and high-level visits resumed after decades. A new prime minister from the BNP or Jamaat, both of which have historically pro-Pakistan leanings, could potentially accelerate this through intelligence sharing or economic agreements, although geography limits depth.

Maritime trade between Pakistan and Bangladesh gained momentum with the resumption of cargo transportation services between Karachi and Chattogram in 2025. This was followed by the resumption of direct flights between Dhaka and Karachi in early 2026 after a long break.

Apart from these developments, both countries held talks on easing visa regulations, especially for official travel, while also jointly advocating for the revival of SAARC to strengthen regional cooperation.

This shift alarms India as it could push Bangladesh closer to the China-Pakistan axis and complicate New Delhi’s efforts to counter Islamabad on cross-border terrorism, the Jammu and Kashmir issue and other key challenges.

China’s growing footprint: Tilting the balance towards Beijing

Hasina has balanced India and China, but her successors may tilt more towards Beijing, which has deepened outreach through the Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure investments and diplomatic support for the interim regime.

Recent developments such as the BNP-CPC talks in June 2025 and invitations for Chinese investment, including Yunus’s meeting with President Xi Jinping and his remarks describing India’s seven northeastern states as landlocked, signal a strategic shift that could strengthen China’s encirclement of India.

Both countries agreed to negotiate free trade and investment agreements to enhance bilateral trade, with China granting duty-free access to almost all Bangladeshi goods.

This could precipitate debt trap concerns but strengthen Bangladesh’s infrastructure, transform South Asia’s economic corridors and give Beijing greater influence in the Bay of Bengal.