Italy used to be the bad boy of Europe. Now, it’s France
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (L) presented a general policy statement to the MPs in the National Assembly in Paris on January 14, 2025.
Thomas Samson | AFP | Getty Images
France, which has entered another trust in another week, finds itself unexpectedly negative compared to Italy, a country known for political turmoil and economic fragility.
France’s main political parties and unresolved arguments on the 2026 budget in the last few years in the last few years, a rotating gate of the prime ministers, economists “France New Italy?”
“The financial appearance for France is now worse than that of Italy,” Nomura’s European research analysts said in a Tuesday note.
France’s debt pile reached 113% of GDP in 2024, while 135% of Italy – but the paintings returned to consider the deficit of the countries in that period. In this metric, Italy’s deficit reached 3.4% of the gross domestic product (GDP), while 5.8% of France’s GDP.
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called a trust vote for September 8 last week, because he tried to exceed the controversial 2026 budget that was interrupted by about 44 billion euros ($ 51.3 billion). The aim is to reduce France’s budget deficit to 4.6% in 2026, which is far above EU deficit rules.
Bayrou positioned the vote of confidence on Monday as an existential moment for France and told BFMTV that the situation was “serious and urgent” on Wednesday.
If he and the minority government did not vote, the government will collapse less than a year after the short-lived administration of Michel Barnier’s short-lived administration explosion and will have to be elected by the fifth-French President Emmanuel Macron in less than two years.
The situation in France makes a negative position compared to Italy, which has passed through its own expanded political turmoil and economic uncertainty before the current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was elected in 2022. For the third largest economy of the European Union.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni held a meeting at Washington DC with European leaders in the White House, US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the White House.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
Both France and Italy are under the “extremely open procedures” of the European Commission – a mechanism and budget deficits used by the Commission to return to the EU member states to return to BLOC’s financial rules that should not exceed 60% of the GDP of GDP should not exceed 3% of GDP.
While it is expected to make progress in controlling Italy’s deficit, France shows no symptoms of doing so, the nomurta was summarized.
“The possible overthrow of the government of the French deficit and Bayrou’s government shows the difficulty faced in France’s expenditures,” Nomura’s economists show the difficulty in France’s expenditures, “Nomura economists. He said.
‘Poor, folk show’
Now, the neighbors of France, Bayrou’s left (new popular alliance) and right (national rally) opponent parties to find a budget reconciliation is watching, just because it has days, Since they should be in power after last year’s fruitless elections.
Both sides of the political spectrum said that after the long -term arguments on the budget, they would not support the centralist government in the trust game on Monday and proposed spending interruptions and tax increases. Two official holidays in France also fell badly.
“The 2025 budget will probably be frozen with nominal terms because of the expected decline of the Bayrou government and the possibility that parliament would not exceed the 2026 budget this year, which will probably be frozen with nominal terms, which was added to a greater gap than the European commission in 2026, as the percentage of GDP”, “Nomrah,” Nomura, “Nomrah,” the “financial incident”. “
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks at a press conference in Paris on August 25, 2025.
Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
The collapse of another possible government in France and the possibility of disagreement on the 2026 budget is something for analysts.
“France will offer a poor, public demonstration next week,” France faces an unprecedented pressure from the financial markets, “France will offer a poor, public demonstration next week.
Eurasia Group’s basic scenario is that Bayrou will lose the vote of trust, which is a move, defined as “a unlikely gambling”.
“Macron will appoint a new legislative selection-Shimdilik-shim-shim-and-11 months in 21 months in 21 months,” Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu called the Minister of Justice Gerald Darmanin and Finance Minister Eric Lombard. He said.
Reflecting the wider financial market nerves around the neglected state of French politics, France’s 30-year bond return yield increased over 4.5% on Tuesday and reached a level seen in 2008 before reaching 4.48% on Çarşamba. Other major economies are experiencing high borrowing costs this week due to wider financial concerns.
