Block unveils 3-year outlook, sees gross profit in 2028 of $15.8B

To obstruct It said Wednesday it expects gross profit to rise annually in the mid-teens over the next three years, reaching about $15.8 billion in 2028.

At the payment company’s first investor day event since 2022, Block announced the three-year financial outlook. The announcements come as Wall Street remains skeptical of Block’s prospects, with the stock falling more than 30% in 2025 and major indexes posting solid gains.

Block shares were initially halted around the time of the announcement and later rose 9% when trading resumed.

The new guidance also comes two weeks after Block reported quarterly results, missing revenue forecasts for the sixth consecutive year. Block is moving away from its increasingly crowded point-of-sale business, launching more services tied to Cash App and offering artificial intelligence tools to merchants.

In its new outlook, adjusted operating income is expected to grow nearly 30% annually to $4.6 billion by 2028, Block said. Adjusted earnings per share will grow in the low 30% range to reach $5.50 in three years.

Chief Financial Officer Amrita Ahuja told CNBC ahead of the announcement that the company had entered a new implementation phase.

“Since our last investor day in 2022, we have almost doubled in size in terms of gross margin,” Ahuja said, adding that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization have “more than tripled.”

Block also introduced a new non-GAAP cash flow metric designed to reflect the capital needed to grow loan products, which it expects to reach more than $4 billion, or 25% of gross profit, by 2028.

For 2026, Block expects gross profit to rise 17% to $11.98 billion, while adjusted operating income and EPS will rise more than 30% to $2.7 billion and $3.20, respectively.

Ahuja said Block has adopted the “rule of 40” investment framework. This usually means revenue growth rate plus profit margin exceeding 40. He said the company expects to reach that metric this year and is reorganizing around a single road map with a common technical infrastructure.

“This transformation has enabled us to move faster with more connected decisions across our ecosystem,” Ahuja said.

On Wednesday, Block also expanded its share repurchase program by $5 billion, increasing the remaining authorization of $1.1 billion as of Sept. 30. The previous buyback plan was to buy up to $4 billion.

Block CEO Jack Dorsey, who founded the company as Square in 2009, also attended the investor event. Dorsey has been largely out of the public eye in recent years.

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