The ‘big stay’ and a ‘no-hire, no-fire’ freeze change to labor markets

Millions of workers left their jobs during the “Great Resignation of the Covid-19 pandema, but economic insecurity and uncertainty once again turned the tides of the labor market into” great stay “.

The economists invented this term to talk about fewer employees who left or fired or fired new workers.

ADP Chief economist Ni Richardson told CNBC, “This was ‘great resignation’. But now,” Workers don’t go anywhere, “he said.

“Probably partially at home, perhaps with a big salary purchase of dream jobs … And what we really see in the data is very low turnover, which is very unusual in the USA.”

“I call it ‘big accommodation’. People stay. They don’t leave. And normally you will see too much turnover, such as software development and things like software development, “he said.

Similarly, Richardson said that companies have taken their decisions to hold their decisions, “Because they’re not sure of the next way, not because they’re trying to reduce their own staff.”

Describing the tendency as a “unjustified, free market”, Richardson said that although a proxy-hala is close to historical low levels for the first US unemployment allegations-work, the acceleration is clearly slowing down in terms of recruitment.

“We think there is no fire, Layoff [environment] Currently, companies are very reluctant to let people go, because it took a long time to get them back in the USA. “

The return of “Great Resignation” is dramatic: COVİD-19 PANDEM ended the longest employment and economic expansion in the US history, According to the US Office of Working StatisticsAbout 50.5 million people in 2022 quit 47.8 million in 2021.

However, there are signs that the US business market has cooled; Farm’s payroll growth entered 73,000 slower than expected in July.

Economists said the weak report could provide an incentive to reduce interest rates when the US federal reserve was gathered in the next September.

A similar tendency was seen that the number of business gaps broke 1,172,000 records in August-October 2021. According to the National Statistics Office. In the second quarter of 2022, the total number of labor gaps reached 1.295,000. He said ounce.

Progress quickly to 2025 and the latest UK job data, Published in mid -AugustAccording to Ones, the country’s labor market has shown that it continued to cool off with business gaps that fell to 5.8 to 718,000% between May and July in 16 of the 18 industrial sector.

“Feedback from our Gap Survey, some companies can not hire new workers or can not replace the separated workers,” he added.

Ones said that Britain’s economic inactivity ratio-not a job and is actively not looking for a job, reflecting the number of people aged 16-64-April-June-June 2025, 21%, he said.

Monica George Michail, the economist of the National Economic and Social Research Thought Tank, said, “Business is constantly falling for the last 3 years, partly from tax increases and minimum wage hike has been falling for the last 3 years with the increase in labor costs and general economic uncertainty.”

“In the meantime, inactivity and increasing unemployment increase the supply of labor.”

Neil Carberry, General Manager of Recruitment and Employment Confederation, said that Britain has seen a trend of “a big accommodation” trend, and that the companies are reluctant to recruit until they understand the orbit of the UK economy, which is growing growth.

“The truth is that things are created by businesses and the business creation engine growth … You can not reach anywhere as long as you can’t find a job in a position they want to hire in the UK.”

“Currently, it is quite strange on the market. [since Covid-19]But businesses only sit on the button with one hand. What many of our members say, they can see what they’re going to do, they just want some confidence to do this. “

– Jeff Cox and Greg Iacurci from CNBC contributed to this story.