Glizzy Gambling: Best bets for the 2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island, Brooklyn
Fireworks, flags and barbecues are Fourth of July staples, but America’s 250th birthday adds an extra dose of absurdity to Coney Island. But none of them capture the spirit of the nation as much as the legends. Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating ContestA Coney Island show dating back to 1916.
No matter how ridiculous it sounds, it’s my favorite. Red, White and Boom The tradition is to bet on the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Since joining OutKick in 2022, I’ve cashed in two of my three games at the Super Bowl of Major League Eating (MLE).
Joey Chestnut wins the men’s competition at the Nathan’s Annual Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4, 2025 in New York City. He returned to compete for a 17th straight win after missing the 2024 event due to a sponsorship dispute with Major League Eating. (Adam Gray/Getty Images)
Discerning eaters face a fierce new opponent this year: a scorching Brooklyn weather forecast climbing into the upper 90s. The extreme temperature is set to completely shake the punters’ words by significantly affecting the swallowing speed. Welcome to “Glizzy Gambling”, your best betting guide to making money this Independence Day.
Joey Chestnut to Defend Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Title on July 4th While Serving Probation
These odds are the best available at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut: UNDER 70.5 (-165) via DraftKings
First of all, Glizzy GOAT He ate more than 71 hot dogs and buns (HDB) five times and finished last year with exactly 70.5 HBD. I don’t want to be too nerdy, but since five out of 16 is 31% and the implied probability of -165 is 62%, I get a good number for LCC UNDER 70.5.
But when you factor in the projected heat, I’m getting a great price on this Under. Temperatures on July 4th in Brooklyn are expected to be in the upper 90s, and it becomes even more difficult to lower the glow in extreme heat. Sweating in the heat causes dehydration and makes juggling all those hot dogs difficult. The buns become stale and difficult to eat.
Joey Chestnut wins the men’s competition at the Nathan’s Annual Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4, 2025 in New York City. He returned to compete for a 17th straight win after missing the 2024 event due to a sponsorship dispute with Major League Eating. (Adam Gray/Getty Images)
JOEY CHESTNUT REFLECTS CONTRACT DISPUTE, RETURN TO HOT DOG EATING CONTEST AFTER TEMPORARY BAN
The 17-time Mustard Belt winner had eaten a personal low 54 HBD in 2010 and it was 96 degrees outside. When Chestnut dropped a record-setting 76 HBD in 2021, the weather was in the mid-70s, which he feels is perfect weather for the competition. In 2020, the hot dog eating contest was moved indoors due to the COVID pandemic, and Chestnut consumed a then-record 75 HBD.
Winner Without Joey Chestnut: James Webb (+650) via FanDuel
Patrick Bertoletti is the odds-on favorite in this market at -300, based on winning the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest when Chestnut was banned from competing due to his sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods. But last July 4, Bertoletti conceded just one more HBD than Webb (46.5-45.5).
With +650 odds, Bertoletti’s implied win probability at -300 is 75%, while Webb’s implied win probability is 13%. Simply put, Bertoletti is no more than 62% more likely to drop HBD than Webb, who sits second in the MLE behind Chestnut with three wins this season.
James Webb easily bested competitive eating legend Joey Chestnut by churning out a record-breaking 276 Buffalo wings in just 12 minutes at the 2023 National Buffalo Wing Festival in Orchard Park, New York, over Labor Day weekend. (Photo: David Marino)
This includes Webb’s two record-breaking performances at the ManorPalooza World Texas Sausage Eating Championship (55 Texas sausages) and the Kickoff To Summer Blackberry Moonshine Wing Championship (256 wings).
Gideon Oji (-145) > Radim Dvořáček
Dvořáček dropped 23 HBD in 2024 and 30.5 HBD last year in two Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests. Oji, on the other hand, has conceded more than 31 HBDs in eight of 10 exhibition contests in his career, including three in a row.
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Dvořáček is in 12th place in the MLE rankings, and Oji is in ninth place. Oji won the 2026 National Sweet Corn Eating Championship, whereas Dvořáček has no wins this season.
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