Global recession inevitable if Strait of Hormuz stays shut
Ken Griffin, chief executive officer of Citadel Advisors LLC, at the Semaphore World Economic Summit during the Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank on Tuesday, April 14, 2026 in Washington, DC, USA.
Aaron Schwartz | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said Tuesday that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, the global economy will head towards recession.
“Let’s say [the strait is] “It’s going to shut down for the next 6 to 12 months – the world is going to end up in recession,” Griffin said on stage at the Semaphore World Economy conference in Washington, D.C. “There’s no way to avoid this.”
As a result, the world will see a major shift towards alternative fuel sources, including wind, solar and nuclear, he added. Of course, the hedge fund leader thinks the consequences of the war would be worse if the United States delayed any strike until Iran’s military capabilities grew.
Stocks have managed to return to where they were before the first US strike on Iran in February, but optimism among investors depends on the duration of the war in the Middle East. Many people expect that the risk of escalating tensions between the two countries will not be priced into the market at all.
Global economies, especially in Asia, remain vulnerable to sudden increases in oil prices, which hover around $100 per barrel. This remains below the peak level during the conflict, but well above the pre-war level of just under $70 a barrel.
