Gold U.S. Dollar Bond Stock markets: Iran war rattles gold, bonds, stock markets. Where to save money, find safe haven amidst global disruption?
Warren Buffet Road
If Warren Buffett is happy for Berkshire Hathaway to hoard more money, who needs to look for another safe haven? Finance and Markets expert Mike Dolan wrote that although Berkshire reported ending 2025 with a massive cash stash of $373 billion, the cash pile was largely preserved and the conglomerate’s legendary chairman claimed this week that they moved some more money there.
“We bought $17 billion of Treasuries this week,” Buffett told CNBC on Tuesday, adding that they don’t see much to buy beyond a “small purchase” and that the cash position remains “somewhere north of $350 billion.”
As for whether the stock market shakeout in March had cheapened things enough to make them more interesting, he refused to fix it with characteristic bluntness: “That’s nothing.” Buffett may be exceptional in many ways, but Berkshire’s massive cash position says something about the market predicament of finding an adequate, safe haven in the energy shock that comes with the Iran war.
It might be better to stay in cash, especially now that further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are off the table.
Gold, Treasury BillsGold has clearly been disappointed since the start of the war; Despite big gains from the previous year, it is suffering one of its worst months since 2008, damaging its reputation as a safe haven benefiting from wider turbulence.
Treasury bonds have again proven to be a generally leaky portfolio insulator; At no point during Donald Trump’s tumultuous second presidency did he adequately fulfill that function.
As Carlyle research notes, Treasury prices fell along with stocks during three major stock market downturns last year triggered by geopolitical unrest (the tariff shock last April, the Greenland dispute in January and the Iran war last month).
“It is no longer reasonable to assume that Treasuries will provide the offsetting divergences from equities that investors have expected over the previous decade,” wrote Carlyle strategist Jason Thomas.
“Bonds have sold alongside stocks during every major shock over the last 12 months, and the correlation between monthly returns on stocks and bonds has increased from -25% to +50% since 2022.”
Where to Save Money?
This could change if there was a recession or deep rate cuts, but despite the double whammy of inflation and growth, neither is yet on the radar. Dolan wrote that manufacturing surveys in March showed that the AI boom and global trade in AI-related hardware continues to grow despite conflicts and energy shortages in the Middle East.
Even though 12-month forward price/earnings valuations have retreated more than 10%, full-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 rose to 17% last month. Then perhaps it’s better to be in commodities and related stocks.
Much of the trade and political tensions of the past year are collapsing global supply chains and making scarce resources, including inputs and raw materials for weapons and missiles, even scarcer.
Beyond the rise in oil and gas prices, the CRB core commodity index rose almost 20% last month.
These repeated shocks, which seem to be a feature of the Trump presidency, are an excuse to build positions in the physical economy (power, grid, infrastructure, automation and strategic resources), according to Societe Generale strategist Manish Kabra.
Noting that the impact of oil shocks generally depends on just two things, duration and the Fed’s response, he told clients: “Investors can be best positioned through industry, utilities, materials and energy.”
US Dollar
Keep one thought in mind for a modest dollar of cash, though. He regained his composure after a no-show during last year’s tariff farrago. Buffett seems happy to load up on more Treasury bills with interest rates of around 3.6%. Yields look even better for investors outside the U.S.: The dollar index’s near 3 percent rise against major currencies has created an additional cushion, Dollan wrote.
Cash may not exactly be king, but it pulled off a trick last month that bonds or gold couldn’t pull off. At the very least, it would negate the advantage of the 6-8% shakeout in the S&P 500. While everyone is still debating what historical market reference points to use for this battle, March’s market moves will already have entered the investment almanac as an example of what to do going forward, according to Dolan.
