GOP eyes states to redraw House maps

Tennessee’s Republican Gov. Bill Lee signed into law a just-approved measure on Thursday to eliminate the state’s only Democratic-held congressional seat. It’s the latest move in the fight to redraw U.S. House districts following a landmark decision by the Supreme Court and ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The maps are “crazy,” according to Rep. Steve Cohen, a Memphis Democrat who holds the seat targeted by Republicans. One send to x As the state legislature’s special session began Wednesday, Cohen said the proposal would squeeze people who live more than 200 miles apart into the same district.

“Trump knows he has to rig the game to maintain his majority in November,” Cohen said. Published on X We had previously described the effort as a “power grab” following the signing of the law. “And the TN GOP was willing to comply.” He also threatened to sue.

Power grab or not, redrawn maps like the one in Tennessee could be key to maintaining a majority in the House of Representatives. And in the redistricting race to the bottom, neither party appears willing to take their foot off the gas.

The Supreme Court’s April 29 decision to weaken part of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais invalidated a majority-black, Democrat-held district in Louisiana and cleared the way for states in the South to redraw their own congressional maps. as well as Louisiana and Tennessee Alabama And South Carolina We have already taken steps for this.

Republicans face an uphill climb to maintain their majority as they struggle under the weight of President Donald Trump’s falling approval ratings, the ongoing Iran war and rising gas prices. However, lately they have attracted attention with a more optimistic tone.

“You have one or two seats in each of these states; that’s a huge number,” said one Republican operative who asked to remain anonymous. “When you have a three-seat majority, every single seat matters.”

“There’s definitely a way. I think [the Callais decision] When it happens, the road gets brighter for us,” the operator said.

VoteHub, an independent political outlet that provides election analysis, told Democrats they have an 85 percent chance of winning the House. Forecast published May 4After the Callais decision.

And Democrats are reassuring despite the Supreme Court defeat.

“No matter how hard they try, Republicans will not artificially win a majority in 2026. Voters will have the final say in November,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Viet Shelton said in a statement. he said.

But the math can get difficult.

Republicans already had a narrow lead over Democrats in redistricting battles. According to a Analysis by nonprofit Issue One Before the Callais decision, Republicans were predicted to win up to 13 seats through partisan gerrymandering in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Democrats could take a net 10 points, according to Issue One, but that depends on them sticking with the new maps passed in Virginia, which are the subject of a legal challenge at the state supreme court.

Issue One found that post-Callais Republicans could add at least five more seats, giving the GOP an advantage of between eight and 12 seats. If successful, these redrawn maps have the potential to disenfranchise minority voters, said Michael McNulty, Issue One’s policy director.

“We are very concerned that this is essentially giving politicians a green light to simply weaken the voices of voters of color,” said McNulty. “And it’s reigniting a war that’s already gerrymandering. It’s reigniting it so that politicians can basically redraw the maps to protect themselves instead of trying hard to get voters to vote.”

More states are likely to follow in the 2028 election cycle, targeting seats previously protected by the repealed section of the Voting Rights Act, including places like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Texas. By First Issue.

Republicans are also urging states to take action.

“States must be proactive and move quickly on redistribution,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-affiliated Club for Growth. That group’s campaign arm invested $2 million in state Senate races in Indiana to unseat a group of Republicans who defeated Trump’s redistricting push there.

“Indiana sent a signal that Republican primary voters want legislators to be aggressive and get the job done. Republicans must be willing to fight,” McIntosh said.

“We cannot allow an Election to be held unconstitutionally for the ‘convenience’ of the State Legislatures. If they have to vote twice, so be it.” Trump shared on TruthSocial on Sunday, citing House races in Louisiana where early voting has already begun and It was later stoppedafter the decision.

“We must demand that State Legislatures do what the Supreme Court says must be done. This is more important than administrative convenience. The byproduct is Republicans gaining 20+ House Seats in the coming Midterms!” Trump said.

There is little evidence that these efforts are popular outside political circles. Seventy-one percent of Americans recently YouGov poll While they said partisan gerrymandering should not be allowed, only seven percent said they supported the practice. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans said partisan gerrymandering should not be allowed, compared to 74 percent of Democrats.

But any wholesale change to curb partisan gerrymandering seems unlikely in the near term. Congress could pass a law banning redistricting or requiring separate, independent redistricting committees by the middle of the decade. Democrats have prioritized such proposals in recent years. But in the current political environment, neither side has little incentive to act.

Noureldin, meanwhile, called the current effort to redivide the South a “power grab.”

“They draw districts in a way that allows them to choose their voters, not the other way around,” he said.