Greenland’s role in Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’

In a hypothetical nuclear war involving Russia, China, and the United States, the island of Greenland would be in the midst of Armageddon.

The strategic importance of the Arctic region (under the flight paths that nuclear-armed missiles from China and Russia could follow on their way to burning targets in the United States and vice versa) is one of the reasons cited by US President Donald Trump in his devastating campaign to wrest control of Greenland from Denmark.

This move alarmed the Greenlanders and their long-time allies in Europe.

Trump has argued that U.S. ownership of Greenland is vital to his “Gold Dome,” a multibillion-dollar missile defense system that he says will be operational before his term ends in 2029.

“With the Gold Dome and Modern Day Weapon Systems for both Offensive and Defensive purposes, the need to ACHIEVE is especially important,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Saturday.

This heralded another bumpy week involving the autonomous Danish region; Here Trump once again pushed for US ownership before seemingly backing down, announcing on Wednesday a “framework for a future agreement” that is unlikely to be the final word on Arctic security.

Here’s a closer look at Greenland’s position at a turning point for nuclear defense.

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, or ICBMs, which nuclear adversaries will fire at each other – if it comes to that – tend to take the shortest direct route from their silos or launchers into space and back down again on a ballistic trajectory towards targets.

The shortest flight paths from China or Russia to the United States (and in the other direction) would take most of them to the Arctic region.

For example, Russian Topol-M missiles fired from the Tatishchevo silo complex southeast of Moscow would fly high over Greenland if they target the U.S. ICBM force of 400 Minuteman III missiles based at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, and Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming.

China’s Dong Feng-31 missiles could also fly over Greenland if they target the US east coast if fired from new silo sites that the US Department of Defense says are being built in China.

“If there’s a war, most of the action will happen on that piece of ice. Think about it: those missiles will be flying right over the center,” Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday.

At the US Pituffik Cosmodrome in Greenland, a series of forward-looking early warning radars serve as the eyes of the Pentagon against any missile attack.

Pronounced “Bee-doo-FEEK,” the facility was formerly called Thule Air Base, but was renamed in 2023 using the Greenlandic name for the remote location, recognizing the indigenous community forcibly displaced by the construction of the U.S. post in 1951.

Its location above the Arctic Circle and roughly halfway between Washington and Moscow allows its radar to monitor potential flight paths of Chinese missiles targeting the Arctic region, Russia and the United States.

“This gives the United States more time to think about what it needs to do,” said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst who specializes in Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

“Greenland is a good place for this.”

The dual-sided solid-state AN/FPS-132 radar is designed to quickly detect and track ballistic missile launches, including those from submarines, informing the U.S. commander in chief’s response and providing data for interceptors to attempt to destroy warheads.

The US Air Force says the radar beams for about 5,550 km in a 240-degree arc and can detect objects no larger than a small car even from the farthest distance.

Showcasing the “Golden Dome” in Davos, Trump said that the United States should have Greenland to defend it.

“You can’t defend that with a lease,” he said.

But defense experts have a hard time understanding this logic, given that the United States has been operating in Pituffik for decades without owning Greenland.

French nuclear defense expert Etienne Marcuz points out that Trump never mentioned the need to take control of the United Kingdom, even though it, like Greenland, plays an important role in US missile defense.

An early warning radar operated by the UK Royal Air Force at Fylingdales in northern England serves both the UK and US governments and scans for missiles coming from Russia and elsewhere and from the north towards the polar region.

The unit’s motto is “Vigilamus” – Latin for “we watch”.

The multilayered “Golden Dome” Trump envisions could include space-based sensors to detect missiles.

These could reduce the United States’ need for the Greenland-based radar station, said Marcuz, a former nuclear defense employee at the French Ministry of Defense who now works at the Strategic Research Foundation think tank in Paris.

“Trump’s claim that Greenland is vital to the Golden Dome and therefore should be invaded and captured is false for many reasons,” Marcuz said.

“One of them is that, for example, there is a radar in the UK, and as far as I know, there is no question of an invasion of the UK. And first of all, there are new sensors that are currently being tested, are in the process of being deployed, which will actually de-emphasize Greenland.”

Because of its location, Greenland could be a useful place to station “Golden Dome” interceptors that would attempt to destroy warheads before they reach the continental United States.

“This extremely complex system can only operate to its maximum potential and efficiency if these Lands are included,” Trump wrote in his post last weekend.

But the United States already has access to Greenland under the 1951 defense agreement.

Before Trump escalates tensions in the region, experts say the governments of Denmark, which owns the region, would likely readily agree to any request to expand the American military footprint there.

It used to have multiple bases and facilities, but later abandoned them, leaving only Pituffik.

“Denmark was the most compatible ally of the United States,” Marcuz said.

“The situation is very different now. I don’t know if it will be allowed, but beforehand the answer was ‘Yes’.”

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