Guardians at plus money against struggling Astros feels like a steal in American League showdown

Yesterday was a tough event. I played the Chicago Cubs and the Toronto Blue Jays and won the Cubs. They built a five-run lead early in the game and were unable to hold it late in the game as they gave up eight runs against the Blue Jays. It can be frustrating how quickly a win turns into a defeat.

Let’s avoid that fate when the Cleveland Guardians face the Houston Astros on Sunday.

The Guards are once again in first place in the AL Central. I often discuss how the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers find ways to be competitive year after year despite not bringing top-tier talent to their teams. Also lost in this mix is ​​the Guardians, who always seem to have a competitive team. They have a superstar, but because he plays in Cleveland, Jose Ramirez gets much less attention than other top players in the league. The good news for Guardians is that they’re not having a great year this year and they’re still winning.

Cleveland will send Slade Cecconi. Part of what makes Guardians so successful year after year is finding talent or bringing out the best in the pitch team. They haven’t really achieved that with Cecconi yet. He is 3-5 on the season with a 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He made twice as many road starts as home starts, so the numbers are a bit skewed, but he does have a higher ERA on the road than at home. The good news is that it remained locked for most of May and all of June. He has allowed three runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, but also has completed six innings just twice during that stretch. He has allowed two or fewer in each of the last three games.

The Astros were a winning team no matter how many players they lost. Obviously, they had a major scandal that helped them win the World Series, but they also had a lot of top talent come through their clubhouse. The team continued to do well even after key players left. Since they are only 36-42 years old, it may be finally catching up with them. The good news for Houston fans is that they still have a chance to win the division as they are only a few games behind.

Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros celebrates hitting a grand slam with Christian Walker in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals on June 12, 2026 in Kansas City, Mo. (Charlie Riedel/AP)

But they will need some help from the pitch team. If you combined the Astros’ offense and the Guardians’ pitching, you’d probably have a really strong World Series team. But this will not happen. They need Kai-Wei Teng to perform well today. He has only made a handful of starts this season as he started off the bench. He has a 4.31 ERA and 1.34 WHIP for the season. But he hasn’t been pretty in his last few starts. He has allowed 14 earned runs in 12.1 innings this month.

Astros hitters are 12 to 36 against Cecconi. That’s the biggest cause for concern when trying to back up guards. Isaac Paredes is 3-for-6 against him with a homer. It’s not very good, but it’s the only guy that stands out. The Guardians don’t have a lot of experience against Teng, so there really isn’t much to talk about in this regard.

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Chase DeLauter of the Cleveland Guardians runs the bases after hitting a solo home run against Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert in the first inning of an opening day game on March 26, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Lindsey Wasson/AP Photo)

I think there are two skins in this game. Over 8.5 makes a lot of sense because Teng is allowing a lot of runs. However, the Guardians’ offense is not the team’s most impressive aspect. Considering the way Cecconi shoots, I think it makes more sense to lead Guardians to win the game. I’m not really sure why we bought these for plus money, but I’m glad I did. Give me Cleveland on the money line.

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Follow David on X/Twitter for more sports betting information and games: @futureprez2024