Ukraine hopes to sign ‘drone deals’ with seven Nato countries by end of year | Ukraine

Ukraine hopes to sign major defense deals with at least seven NATO countries by the end of the year, according to a senior official, underscoring a new direction in Kiev’s foreign policy aimed at showing it can be a provider as well as a provider of military hardware and expertise.

Kyiv has signed “drone agreements” with six countries in recent months. Three of the Middle Eastern states eager for Ukraine’s support after being targeted by Iran’s long-range Shahed drones after the US-Israeli war against Iran began in the spring. These are the same weapons that have been targeting Ukrainian cities continuously for the last four years. In addition to Kiev, Azerbaijan also signed an agreement with NATO members Latvia and Lithuania.

“The initiative is called the drone agreement, but it actually covers much more than just drones… what is even more important is the experience and knowledge, the access to all the components that make up the system here in Ukraine,” said Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of Ukraine’s security council and one of the people in charge of the agreements.

Drone diplomacy began during Trump’s war against Iran, when Tehran attacked US allies in the region. Although Iran mostly operates a version of the Shahed that is much less advanced than the upgraded models Russia uses in Ukraine, it has become clear that most Gulf states are unprepared for the threat from drones.

In some cases, expensive Patriot missiles were used to shoot down Shaheds when cheap interceptor drones should have been able to do the job; but only when combined with the necessary knowledge and experience. “The interceptor drone is just a drone. That doesn’t mean you can hit Shaheds with it,” Aloian said. “You need UAVs, but you also need subcomponents, sensors, ground stations and, most importantly, radar systems,” Aloian said.

Following the attacks, Aloian said a country in the region purchased an interceptor drone from a western company that developed the product in collaboration with Ukrainian manufacturers. Following delivery, Kiev received repeated requests for assistance with advice on how to best operate the systems.

Eventually, three Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar) signed agreements with Ukraine. Kiev offered countries a broad assessment of what is needed at the operational and tactical level to make the weapons effective.

It’s in this big-picture integration where Ukraine can be most useful, said Mike Kofman, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. “They can provide an ecosystem of products to organize air defense or develop attack drone capability,” he said.

The delivery of drones is not yet part of the agreement, as Ukrainian industry is subject to strict controls and is focused on the country’s defense needs. Diplomats and analysts said “drone diplomacy” was to some extent an attempt to recruit new allies and keep Ukraine relevant at a time when attention was shifting to the Middle East. But Kiev, the world’s most experienced country in defending against drone attacks and using drones in attacks against Russia, thinks it has a lot to offer.

“We initially do an evaluation by a group of experts and present a report to the partner explaining what they will need,” Aloian said. It is up to the partner countries to decide whether they want to place an order for Ukrainian products, which can be produced in the future depending on the existing capacity, or procure them from elsewhere.

Aloian said the focus will now shift to NATO partners, especially those closer to Russia or Ukraine, who are having to pay increasing attention to defending against drones. In Latvia, the government fell in May following a political scandal that began after two long-range Ukrainian drones crashed into an oil storage facility after being blown off course by Russia’s electronic warfare measures.

Shortly after, Latvia signed a drone agreement with Ukraine and last week announced that a joint drone production facility would soon open in the east of the country. Lithuania, whose air raid sirens sounded after a similar incident in which Ukrainian drones were pushed off course and into the country’s airspace, also signed an agreement.

Aloian said that many more NATO countries showed interest and that some agreements could be signed at the NATO leaders’ summit to be held in Ankara this week. He said that the goal is to sign agreements with at least seven NATO countries by the end of the year.

Kiev’s attempts to build a European counterpart to the Patriot missile system capable of defending against Russian ballistic missiles are more ambitious and less certain to succeed; It is the weakest point in Ukraine’s air defense, given the expense and scarcity of US-made Patriot systems. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made the production of such a missile a top priority, and Aloian said talks between European partners are ongoing at the political level and among major arms companies.

Whatever the fate of specific initiatives, what is clear is that, as Europe realizes that it will have to organize its own security with less US support in the future, there is a growing awareness that Ukraine must be part of the picture.

Alyona Getmanchuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to NATO, said she has noticed a big difference in the way allies talk about Ukraine since she took office last summer. “When I came to NATO and talked about Ukraine’s potential as a security provider, there was often hesitation in people’s eyes,” he said. “Now some of the same people often start conversations by saying this. It has become fashionable to talk about Ukraine this way.”