Hormuz may not fully open until second half of 2026, Baker Hughes says
Two boys row in the sea as ships anchor near the coastline in Bandar Abbas, Iran, on April 22, 2026.
Stringer | Getty Images
Baker Hughes A senior executive at the influential oilfield services firm said on Friday that it was operating under the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz might not fully reopen for months.
Baker’s financial guidance assumes the U.S.-Iran conflict will continue through the end of June and that the strait may not become fully operational until the second half of the year, Chief Financial Officer Ahmed Moghal told investors on the company’s first-quarter earnings call.
“Ultimately, there is still great uncertainty about the duration and depth of the conflict,” Moghal said. he said.
Baker is one of the world’s most influential oilfield drillers, with extensive work in the Middle East. The assumption that the strait may not open for months is widely shared in the energy sector.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in a survey of nearly 100 oil and gas executives, found that about 80 percent of respondents believe the strait will not reopen until August or later. More than 80 percent of responding executives think future disruptions in the strait are somewhat or very likely. Dallas Fed Energy survey found.
Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said that in the wake of the Iran war, “geopolitical risk has become a structural reality for oil and gas markets.” Closing the strait affects 10% of global oil volumes and knocks out 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, Simonelli said.
The CEO said this would likely result in “permanent risk premiums for oil and LNG prices.”
The Bosphorus is one of the most important trade routes in the world, especially in terms of energy markets, and before the war, approximately 20% of the global oil supply passed through the sea route. Iran managed to stop exports through the strait by attacking tankers, triggering the largest oil supply disruption in history.
As the conflict enters its eighth week, tanker traffic in the Bosphorus remains very low. The United States and Iran have seized commercial ships as they try to impose rival blockades in and around the strait during a fragile ceasefire agreement.
Correction: Baker Hughes assumes in its financial guidance that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the second half of 2026. The previous version of this story did not provide this context.
