How Australia can qualify for the World Cup knockout stages with a win, draw or loss
SanFrancisco: The Socceroos returned to their training base in Oakland after a disappointing 2-0 defeat against the United States, but their World Cup fate is still very much in their own hands.
With Paraguay beating Türkiye, Australia will head into their final group match at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara knowing what they need to do to advance to the knockout stage. Group D’s final round matches kick off at noon (AEST) on Friday, with the USA playing Turkey at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, while the Socceroos also play Paraguay.
This is what each potential outcome means for the Socceroos’ chances of advancing to the round of 32.
Socceroos won
If Australia beat Paraguay, the Socceroos will finish second in Group D with six points. The USA, which currently has 6 points, was at the top of the group regardless of whether it lost to Türkiye in the last group match. This is because FIFA is using head-to-head records rather than goal difference as the primary tiebreaking factor in teams’ points standings for the first time in a World Cup. The USA’s win over the Socceroos in Seattle means Australia cannot finish higher than second.
What’s next: Second-place finishers Australia will play their last 32 match against the runners-up in Group G (likely to be Egypt, Iran or New Zealand) in Dallas on July 4 (AEST). The Socceroos have never faced Egypt in a major tournament and Australia’s last game against Iran was a heartbreaking World Cup qualifier defeat at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in 1997.
football draw
Australia need just one point to secure second place. Paraguay, like Australia, currently has three points; So both sides will finish the race equal with four points. The draw also meant that a head-to-head tiebreaker would not be able to separate the sides, so it would revert to goal difference and with Australia having a superior score, the Socceroos would finish second.
What’s next: Same scenario with us winning; Last 32 game against Group G’s second-place player in Dallas.
Football players lose
Even with the defeat, Australia cannot finish lower than third in Group D. If Türkiye wins against the USA and gets three points, they will be below the Socceroos based on the head-to-head record achieved after Australia’s 2-0 win in the opening round in Vancouver.
Australia’s progress will depend on a series of results across multiple matches in the other 11 groups. The tournament’s expansion to 48 teams means the eight best-performing third-place teams across 12 groups advance to the last 32. Will the Socceroos’ three points after one win and two defeats be enough to advance through the tournament? Most likely.
Following the opening round of the tournament, leading analytics company Opta’s supercomputer ran 100,000 simulations of the remaining group stage fixtures and found 66.7 per cent of the time three points was enough for a team to go through.
How bad Australia’s defeat is for Paraguay will have an impact. The Socceroos currently have a goal difference of zero, so a defeat would negatively impact that. Opta says Australia’s odds of progressing if they lose by a single goal would actually be 84.2 per cent. However, if they lose by two points, this rate drops to 64.3 percent; when three goals are scored it becomes 41.8 percent and so on.
What’s next: If they settle for third place, their opponents and their field in the last 32 games are not that clear. Currently, the most likely scenario is that they go to Boston on June 30 with Germany, who are already at the top of Group E. Other possibilities include a trip to New York (i.e., MetLife Stadium in New Jersey) to play the winner of Group I (most likely France) on July 1, or a trip to Kansas City to play the winner of Group K on July 4. Portugal or Colombia will probably be at the top of this group.
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Nick Ralston is deputy editor and research editor of The Sydney Morning Herald. He previously served as news editor, justice editor and world editor.Connect with: X or email.
