How Iran and Venezuela strikes transform the Trump-Xi trade talks

China’s opposition to the US and Israel’s war against Iran is increasing tensions between Beijing and Washington just weeks before a high-stakes meeting between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

The Middle East offensive, in which China-friendly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many other Iranian officials were killed, shows that the United States is doubling down on its willingness to eschew diplomacy and launch high-risk military operations to achieve its global goals. The war began less than two months after the United States attacked Venezuela to capture the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, who are currently detained in New York.

The actions also show that the Trump administration is eager to turn the tables in countries where Beijing wields significant influence, even as the tumultuous trade war between the United States and China has turned into an uneasy détente.

The attacks are unlikely to halt or jeopardize diplomacy between the two superpowers. But Tim Keeler, partner and co-head of international business at Mayer Brown, said they would set the “soul music” for Trump’s summit with Xi in China.

The speed and show of force in the Maduro raid was “astonishing” and reminded China of U.S. military capabilities, Keeler said in a telephone interview.

If the Iranian attack takes shape similarly to Venezuela, “this could result in a significant change in the nature of the background music of the meeting,” he said.

Experts say this could affect both the talks and the agreements that emerge from the talks. While some think the US strikes could give Trump a slight boost over Xi, they also note that the advantage could shift to China depending on the course of the old war.

Trump is expected to travel to China from March 31 to April 2. Earlier, senior US and Chinese trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are expected to meet in Paris to discuss tariffs and possible deals on US soybeans and China. Boeing’s aeroplane, Bloomberg reported this week.

US and Israel began bombing Iran with airstrikes on Saturday, Trump initially identified regime change in Tehran as a key goal.

In the days since then, The management’s statements regarding the timing and general purpose of the strikes have changed. Officials eventually coalesced around a four-pronged rationale for war: destroying Iran’s missile program, cripple its navy, prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons, and ensure it could no longer support fighters beyond its borders.

Iran’s biggest customer in the world is China oil exportto have oppose the war and called for an immediate ceasefire.

“The Strait of Hormuz and its adjacent waters are an important international trade route for goods and energy. Keeping the region safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community,” Liu Pengyu, spokesman for China’s embassy in Washington, told CNBC on Thursday. he said.

“China calls on relevant parties to immediately stop military operations, prevent further escalation of the tense situation, and prevent regional unrest from further damaging global economic growth,” Liu said. he said.

International oil prices, which have fallen from recent highs, have risen again due to supply disruptions, creating noticeable fluctuations in the global economy, including a sudden rise in US gas prices.

However, China and other Asian economies most of crude oil Ships sent through the Strait of Hormuz may face the greatest exposure.

Bessent suggested on CNBC on Wednesday that developments in Venezuela and Iran are poised to cause further damage to Beijing.

“China is very vulnerable on the energy side,” he told “Squawk Box,” noting that the Asian economy “is paying a huge discount.”

“That’s obviously on hold right now and then we’ll go from there,” Bessent said.

Some analysts say the war could strengthen Trump’s position—at least for now—as China’s interest in maintaining dialogue with the United States outweighs growing concerns about U.S. aggression.

“In the short term, sentiment is unquestionably in Trump’s favor,” Jack Lee, an analyst at China Macro Group, said in an email to CNBC.

“A US administration willing to strike and absorb the blowback could appear to be coming from a ‘position of strength,’ which could bring a degree of caution to Beijing,” he said.

Lee noted that China’s tone in responding to the US attacks was “unusually” soft, especially compared to its stronger condemnation of the Maduro raid.

Yue Su, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, acknowledged that war likely would not derail the Trump-Xi meeting despite rising risks and uncertainties.

It could instead become part of the negotiations, he said: “This is much more important for China compared to the Venezuelan example. China is currently expanding its investments in the Middle East, so it needs to take into account potential spillover effects.”

David Meale, head of the China practice at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC that the United States has not gained an advantage over Iran because “there is no obvious conclusion that China can achieve based on these other developments.”

Meale added that the war could still shape China’s response by increasing Beijing’s incentive to “engage in ways that set expectations for maintaining stability in bilateral relations.”

Experts emphasized that the Iran war is still in its infancy and the dynamics could change wildly between now and the date of Trump’s trip abroad.

“Three weeks is a long time,” Keeler said.

— CNBC’s Eamon Javers contributed to this report.