How Republicans are winning the war over US congressional redistricting, state by state

By Joseph Axe

May 11 (Reuters) – Several Republican-led states in the South are trying to redraw congressional maps ahead of midterm elections in November to help their party preserve its slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, the latest round of a year-long national fight over redistricting.

The political battle began last summer when U.S. President Donald Trump pushed Texas Republicans to establish a new map targeting five Democratic-held seats. California Democrats responded with their own maps targeting five Republican incumbents, and other states soon followed suit.

As of this spring, the two parties were roughly tied. But a pair of court decisions — a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that gutted protections for majority-Black districts and a Virginia Supreme Court decision that overturned a Democratic-backed map in that state — gave Republicans a distinct advantage.

Republicans now look poised to end the cycle by increasing their lead by winning nearly a dozen House seats across the country. Democrats need to flip just three Republican-held seats starting in 2024 to win the majority, so each district could be crucial. Conflicts across the country are developing as follows:

REPUBLICAN GAINS

TENNESSEE – ONE SEAT

Tennessee Republican lawmakers on May 7 approved a new congressional map that dissolved a predominantly black district centered in Memphis, becoming the first state to benefit from a U.S. Supreme Court decision gutting the Voting Rights Act.

The move would likely unseat the state’s only Democratic U.S. representative, Steve Cohen, and give Republicans a clean sweep of all nine districts in the state.

SOUTH CAROLINA – A POSSIBLE SEAT

Republican lawmakers are considering a new map that would target the district long represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, but it’s unclear if there’s enough support to approve it. A new map would likely require the legislature to postpone the June primary nominating election.

Republicans currently control the state’s six other U.S. House districts.

ALABAMA – A POSSIBLE SEAT

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for Republican lawmakers to introduce a new map that would target one of the state’s two majority-black districts, both represented by Democrats.

Republican lawmakers awaiting the court’s decision had already approved legislation that would allow them to cancel the May 19 U.S. House primary and set a new date.

Alabama’s current map was subject to a court order requiring it to remain in place until 2030. However, the U.S. Supreme Court granted the Republicans’ request to lift the injunction; That could allow lawmakers to revert to an old map that only had a single Democratic-leaning district. Republicans currently control the state’s other five seats in the House of Representatives.

TEXAS – UP TO FIVE SEATS

The U.S. Supreme Court in early December cleared the way for a new Republican-backed map targeting five Democratic-held seats. The court’s decision overturned a lower court ruling that concluded the map likely discriminated against minority voters.

Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed the map into law in August. Weeks ago, more than 50 Democratic lawmakers fled the state, temporarily blocking the vote but eventually returning. Republicans already control 25 of the 38 seats in Texas, according to the Republican-drawn 2021 map.

FLORIDA – UP TO FOUR SEATS

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis drew a new map aimed at flipping four Democratic-held seats and called for a special legislative session in late April, during which the Republican majority signed it into law. Democrats have vowed to challenge the map in court, citing a provision in the state constitution that expressly prohibits the legislature from drawing districts solely for partisan gain.

Republicans already control 20 of the state’s 28 seats after DeSantis and the legislature adopted a new map that flips four Democratic seats in 2022.

MISSOURI – ONE SEAT

Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe signed a new legislative map in September that eliminated a Democratic-held seat in Kansas City and gave his party an advantage in seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. As opponents try to force a voter referendum on the map, many organizations have filed lawsuits challenging its legality.

OHIO – UP TO TWO SEATS

A quirk in state law required a new map for 2026 because the previous map was approved without Democratic votes. The state’s redistricting commission, made up of five Republicans and two Democrats, unanimously approved a compromise map in October that improved Republicans’ chances of flipping two Democratic-held seats but did not go as far as Democrats feared. Republicans hold 10 of the state’s 15 seats.

NORTH CAROLINA – ONE SEAT

The state legislature’s Republican majority approved a new map designed to flip the Democratic seat in October; This map would give Republicans control of 11 of the state’s 14 U.S. House seats, despite the state being a divided state. Under state law, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein had no say in the process.

LOUISIANA – UP TO TWO SEATS

Republican Gov. Jeff Landry suspended the state’s May 16 U.S. House primary after the U.S. Supreme Court found that the Louisiana map was an unconstitutional, racist gerrymander. The delay gives the Republican-dominated state legislature a chance to consider several possible new maps, including one that would split up both the state’s majority-black and Democratic-held districts.

Republicans currently hold four of the state’s six seats.

INDIANA – EFFORT FAILED

Indiana’s Republican-controlled Senate rejected a new map aimed at flipping the state’s only two House Democratic seats; It was a rare rebuke to Trump from members of his own party. Republicans control seven of the state’s nine seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

KANSAS – EFFORT FAILED

Kansas Republicans abandoned a Trump-backed effort to redraw the state’s congressional map after Republican Dan Hawkins, the state House speaker, said in January there wasn’t enough support in his chamber to overcome Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto threat. Republicans currently hold three of the state’s four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

DEMOCRATIC GAINS

CALIFORNIA – UP TO FIVE SEATS

Voters overwhelmingly approved a new map backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic lawmakers that aims to flip five Republican-held seats in a direct response to Texas. Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 districts.

VIRGINIA – EFFORTS BLOCKED BY THE COURT

Virginia voters approved a new congressional map drawn by Democrats in a special election on April 21; this map would flip four Republican U.S. House seats. But the state Supreme Court rejected the results on May 8, ruling that Democratic lawmakers did not follow proper procedures in passing the proposed referendum and putting it to the vote.

UTAH – ONE SEAT

A state judge tossed out a Republican-drawn map as illegal partisanship and implemented an alternative that would likely hand one of the state’s four Republican-held seats to Democrats.

MARYLAND – EFFORTS STOPPED

Democrats in the state House introduced a new map in February targeting the state’s only Republican member of Congress; It’s a move supported by Democratic Gov. Wes Moore and national Democratic leaders. Democrats hold the state’s seven other House districts.

But the bill was opposed by Democrat Bill Ferguson, the president of the state Senate, likely dooming the effort.

NEW YORK – EFFORTS BLOCKED BY THE COURT

In January, a New York judge ordered the state’s independent redistricting commission to redraw a Republican-held congressional district centered in New York City’s Staten Island borough, potentially giving Democrats a chance to flip the seat in November.

But the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority put that decision on hold on March 2, granting a request from incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis.

Democrats hold 19 of the state’s 26 seats. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has vowed to pursue a new map in response to Trump’s efforts, but New York laws make it impossible to advance the statewide redistricting effort until 2027.

(Reporting by Joseph Axe; Additional reporting by Andy Sullivan Editing by Paul Thomasch, Lisa Shumaker and Rosalba O’Brien)