How the finals quest of Josh Fraser, Patrick Cripps and the Carlton Blues really is mission possible after their third win in a row, and defeating the Geelong Cats
The final 10 was invented for the exact situation that Carlton Football Club was in and ensured that the fans of such a club would be energized throughout the winter months.
Going from 14th to eighth with 12 matches remaining is like looking forward to the Matterhorn; There is little margin for slippage. You probably need to win 10 out of 12 to be confident that you can achieve this.
But 10th place isn’t that tough; more difficult than climbing Mount Dandenong, of course, but achievable if they maintain the improved form and liberated mentality that has been evident since Michael Voss’ honorable ascent.
Carlton’s next four games will be against the bottom eight teams: Essendon, GWS, West Coast (in Melbourne) and Richmond. They need at least three wins when they are on form; If they beat the Giants and the bottom three, Josh Fraser will get a free latte on Lygon Street, even if he maintains his stance that he won’t run for the vacant coaching position.
Giddy Carlton folk will recall that they were similarly deployed at this point in 2023 when Voss first came into the line of fire; They ranked 14th with four wins, seven losses and one draw. This worsened to 4-8 and a draw after 13 games. As we know, they stormed home to win nine out of 10 games and progress to the preliminary final.
Carlton’s uncanny ability to upset Geelong made Friday night’s victory more surprising than shocking. Patrick Cripps was superb at the end, literally rising to the moment with an unconventional take-on strike that gave his team the winning goal – which he converted despite Stevie J’s risky choice of kick from straight ahead.
Cripps’ revival coincided with Carlton’s; The captain’s return comes just before Voss joins the large group of former Carlton coaches since 2000. This column is among those who incorrectly predicted (George W. Bush’s phrase) that the dual Brownlow medalist struggled until the second half of the ninth inning, Voss’ final match.
Carlton fans tend to oscillate between extreme excitement and despair or anger. The clubland cliché that “inside four walls it’s never as good or bad as you think” seems to have been written with the Blues in mind.
Key decision-makers such as the club’s chief executive Graham Wright, football boss Chris Davies and chairman Rob Priestley have remained realistic and measured throughout this troubled season, unlike much of the supporter base.
They made no commitments about Voss when I spoke to them in March, suggesting that Voss needed to improve overall to keep his job.
Yep, not only did they break up with Voss, but they also got brutal treatment from chart manager Nick Austin on the same day.
If you didn’t know the circumstances, it was easy to claim that “Carlton had done it again” with Voss moving on mid-season. Realistically, the coach had no chance of survival beyond 2025 and the Blues allowed him to move on, fully accepting that he could be in decline.
Keeping Voss for this season is a point of convincing the next coach that they will have fair success in the role.
Wright had set the bar for a top 10 finish with a passion for ladders. Fraser’s results confirm that this is a reasonable expectation. Changes in playing style, such as higher handball scores and more sharing and running, proved less critical than the revival of senior players Cripps, Harry McKay, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh unleashed on a team that played with fear rather than courage (when they were ahead).
Weitering, who admitted to feeling personal guilt over his failure to do his best for Voss, told SEN on Saturday: “The talk within the club is the same. Everything is as stable as before.”
This is not just a matter of serious realism at a club where coaches and managers are often judged harshly. This is the sophistication of the key people, particularly Wright and Davies, who have seen it all from their previous positions at Hawthorn, Collingwood (Wright) and Port Adelaide (Davies).
Accordingly, the Carlton coaching position, previously as secure as any 21st-century Australian premiership, should soon be viewed as attractive by candidates for the position.
While the quality of playlists largely determines the fate of coaches (compare Alastair Clarkson’s last three years 12 years ago) the quality and experience of steering the ship is even more influential.
The Blues added Adam Simpson to their coaching search panel, who is open-minded about candidates, but Wright’s modus operandi at Collingwood – when he and Collingwood opted for Craig McRae over Adam Kingsley, Jaymie Graham and Voss (after first approaching Sam Mitchell) – suggests they would happily recruit from a pool of top-notch assistant coaches such as Corey Enright (St Kilda), Graham (Fremantle), James Kelly (Geelong) and James Kelly (Geelong). whoever else they like.
There are many gaps in the playlist. But they will acquire father-son Cody Walker at the end of the season, a likely No. 1 or 2 pick, and could build around Walker, Harry Dean, Jagga Smith and a host of promising youngsters, including Jack Ison and the injured Harry O’Farrell and Matt Carroll.
Trading Charlie Curnow and losing free agents Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni creates a lot of cap space for aggressive pursuits once Walker and others are acquired via the draft.
A month ago the journey ahead looked almost as tough as Essendon and Richmond’s. Today, the Carlton coaching position occupied by nightwatchman Fraser is shaping up to be one of the competition’s more attractive propositions and challenges, rather than one that burned out Voss’s predecessors.
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Jake Niall is a Walkley-winning sports journalist and The Age’s chief AFL writer.Connect with: X or email.
