What we know about leaked US draft plan to end Russia’s Ukraine war

The draft US-Russia peace plan has been widely leaked, and we now know that it proposes to cede to Russia the regions of Ukraine’s eastern industrial region of Donbas that are still under Ukrainian control. actual Control of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

The latest versions of the text also demand that Ukraine reduce the number of its armed forces to 600,000 people.

So what else is known about the text and who will benefit most from it?

There are 28 key points, and seemingly many points that can be accepted by Ukraine. Others seem vague and uncertain.

Sovereignty of Ukraine “approved” and there would be one “Complete and comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe”solid or reliable “security guarantees” For Kyiv, there is a demand for early elections within 100 days.

If Russia invades Ukraine “Strong, coordinated military intervention” It is proposed to reimpose sanctions and cancel the agreement.

Although elections are impossible in Ukraine due to martial law, elections could theoretically be held if a peace agreement is signed.

But when it comes to security guarantees, there are no details on who will provide them and how robust they might be. This falls well short of the NATO-style Article Five commitment to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on everyone. If Kyiv were to sign, it would want more than a vague promise.

The most controversial proposals include Ukraine handing over its unoccupied territory and reducing the size of its armed forces.

“Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.”

The transfer of the region where at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians live (the Donetsk “fortress belt” cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka) will be unacceptable to most Ukrainians. Russia spent more than a year capturing the town of Pokrovsk; It is unlikely that Ukraine will cede such important strategic centers without a fight.

“The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.”

The Ukrainian army’s active personnel count was estimated at 880,000 last January, down from 250,000 at the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

While 600,000 may seem like a potentially acceptable number in peacetime, such a limitation would violate Ukraine’s sovereignty. This may also be too large a figure for Russia to accept.

Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the UN Security Council: “Our red lines are clear and immutable.” “Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation will never be officially or otherwise recognized as Russia. Ukraine will not accept any limitations on the rights of self-defense or the size or capabilities of our armed forces.”

I also propose the following in the draft:“Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be de facto recognized as Russia, including by the United States.”.

In other words, Ukraine and other countries will not need to legally recognize Russian control. This could allow Kiev to accept such language as it would not affect Ukraine’s constitution, which says its borders are “indivisible and inviolable.”

Elsewhere, the front lines will be frozen in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzia, and Russia will give up occupied territories in other regions.

The draft proposes important commitments regarding Ukraine’s strategic future:

“Ukraine agrees to include in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to add a provision to its charter that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.”

“Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will have short-term preferential market access to the European market while this issue is evaluated.”

Ukraine has little chance of joining NATO in the near future, and Russia has softened its stance on Ukraine’s candidacy for EU membership in recent months. The document appears to offer Kiev access to EU markets, ignoring the views of 27 European countries.

Joining both the EU and NATO is part of Ukraine’s constitution, and another of Khrystyna Hayovyshyn’s red lines at the UN on Thursday was: “We will not tolerate any violations of our sovereignty, including our sovereign right to choose the alliances we want to join.”

Other draft proposals include NATO agreeing not to deploy troops to Ukraine and the deployment of European warplanes to Poland. Kiev would also have to commit to becoming a country. “non-nuclear state”.

This appears to reject Western plans for the Coalition of Volunteers, led by Britain and France, to help oversee any future agreement.

Several points indicate that Russia will be brought back from isolation “Russia will reintegrate into the global economy” and was invited back to the G8 group of powers.

That seems a long way off for now, given that Putin has issued an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Russia was expelled from the G7 after seizing and annexing Crimea in 2014, and Trump tried to bring Putin back into its ranks six years later.

If the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan were reluctant before full-scale invasion, it is even less likely to happen now.

The draft proposes to invest $100 billion in frozen Russian assets “In US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine”The US keeps 50% of the profits, while Europe adds $100 billion in investment for reconstruction.

This is reminiscent of the US mining agreement with Ukraine earlier this year; A price is being charged from America to be included in this agreement, and at the same time, the European Union is left with nothing but heavy bills.

The sums he mentioned may not be enough either: At the beginning of this year, the total cost of reconstruction in Ukraine was put at 524 billion dollars (506 billion euros).

Nearly 200 billion euros of frozen assets in Russia are largely held by Euroclear in Belgium, and the European Union is currently working on a plan to use this money to fund Kiev financially and militarily.

Remainder of frozen assets “US-Russia investment vehicle”Under the bill, Russia would see some of its money returned, but there would still be a financial benefit for the United States.

Some commentators have pointed out that the plan does not require arms restrictions on Ukraine’s military or arms industry; However, the following provision is made: Ukraine, Moscow or St. If he fires a missile at St. Petersburg, his security guarantee will be deemed null and void.

However, it does not impose any restrictions on long-range weapons such as the Flamingo and Long Neptune missiles that Ukraine is developing.

We know that the United States is willing to rapidly advance this draft under an “aggressive timeline”; According to reports, Ukraine has until Thanksgiving next week to accept the draft.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was also involved in the preparation of the draft, called it “a list of potential ideas to end this war”, and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, in a conversation with the other key US official involved, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, made it clear that he did not see the 28 points as a definitive plan.

The draft document appears to be a work in progress in some respects; Some details leaked to US websites on Thursday are no longer visible.

The European Union said Friday morning that it had not yet formally seen the plan, and Russia’s foreign ministry said the same.

It is known that Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev spent as long as three days discussing this plan with Witkoff and brought up proposals for an amended agreement to suit Moscow. Russia’s reaction has been cautious so far, but Putin said this could be the “foundation” of a peace agreement.

The transfer of Ukrainian territory to Russia, even in a demilitarized zone, is the biggest sign of the trend towards Russian rhetoric; But freezing the southern front lines may be difficult for the Kremlin, which has included both Kherson and Zaporizhia in its constitution.

One of the proposals is to lift sanctions. “It was decided gradually and on a case-by-case basis.” – Moscow will probably find this too slow.

But for a plan “full amnesty” Because while all parties will be doing well in Moscow, they will be doing very badly in Kyiv and European capitals.

Commentators have pointed out that although major concessions appear to have been made to Putin, some of NATO’s terms may be too vague for the Kremlin’s taste.

Russia has also consistently demanded that a peace plan must eliminate what it sees as the “root causes” of the war. One of these key reasons is the halting of NATO’s expansion in Eastern Europe, which the draft appears to address.

Some of the bill’s other 28 articles acknowledge, without explicitly endorsing, Russia’s allegations of discrimination against Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population.

One point is clear but neutral: “Both countries will agree to eliminate all discriminatory measures and guarantee Ukrainian and Russian media and education rights.”

Another apparent attempt to act neutral comes from the proposal to distribute electricity produced by the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the largest in Russian-occupied Europe. “Equal between Russia and Ukraine”.