IMF’s growth forecasts to show resilience to global trade shocks, Georgieva says
In an interview during a visit to Kiev to discuss the IMF’s loan to Ukraine, Georgieva suggested the IMF might revise its forecasts “slightly upwards,” as the World Bank did this week.
In October, the IMF raised its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.0% in July; because the impact of US tariffs was less than initially feared. It kept its 2026 global growth outlook unchanged at 3.1 percent.
Asked what the January forecasts would show after the October upgrade, Georgieva said: “More of the same; the world economy is quite resilient, the trade shock is not derailing global growth, the risks are more to the downside, even if performance is quite strong at the moment.”
The IMF is expected to release its World Economic Outlook update on January 19.
Georgieva said risks focus on geopolitical tensions and rapid technological changes. Things may turn out well, he said, but the global economy could also face significant financial difficulties if the massive resources poured into AI do not result in the promised productivity gains.
“We are in a more unpredictable world, and yet many businesses and policymakers operate as if the world has not changed.” Georgieva said she was concerned that many countries had not built up enough reserves to cope with any new shocks that might occur. He said the IMF currently has 50 loan programs, a high number by historical standards, but is preparing for more countries to seek funding.
The IMF chief said the US’s economic performance has been “pretty impressive” despite a series of tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed on nearly every country in the world last year.
He said overall tariff levels were lower than initially threatened, with the U.S. accounting for only 13% to 14% of global trade. Many other countries have also — at least so far — refrained from imposing retaliatory measures that have helped limit the impact of the U.S. tariff wave.
But he said inflation and macroeconomic conditions could worsen if the trade picture darkens.
Georgieva, who took office in October 2019, just months before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, said geopolitical factors were also overshadowing the outlook and now playing a more important role than in previous years.
“Unfortunately, since I took this job (in 2019), it has been one shock after another,” he said.
