Inside Starmer’s plan to fight next general election on Brexit divide

Sir Keir Starmer plans to make Brexit the key dividing line in the next general election as the government seeks to win back voters it lost to Reformation UK. Independent he understands.

Labor believes it is the only political party with a position on Brexit that reflects public views after the Prime Minister vowed to “reset” relations and align the UK more closely with the EU after years of strained relations under Conservative Party rule.

Ten years on from the referendum, polls generally show that a majority of voters think Brexit is not currently working and want closer ties with the bloc. But the majority seem to think rejoining should not be a priority for the government.

After siding with the right on immigration, imposing restrictions on illegal crossings and stepping up ministers’ rhetoric on the issue, the government believes it can create a clear dividing line with opposition parties on EU relations.

Government sources told Independent party attack units plan to portray Nigel Farage as an “ideological zealot” who puts his anti-EU beliefs ahead of striking trade deals that will benefit the UK economy.

Pointing to the negative impact that Britain’s exit from the EU had on the economy, one person said, “Farage no longer wants to talk about Brexit because he knows his project has failed.”

The government is understood to hope to implement the SPS agreement, a proposed deal with the EU to abolish health certificates and most routine border checks on food and agricultural standards, by the summer.

Ministers hope the deal will give businesses a significant “buffer period” before it comes into force ahead of the 2029 general election.

“We want to have a real political fight on this issue,” a government source said IndependentHe said ministers believed they could highlight that the Reform and Conservative Party was putting ideological opposition to the EU ahead of “what voters actually want and the interests of the economy”.

A second government source said ministers could argue that a Farage-led government would undo progress and increase trade barriers for businesses if they introduce an SPS deal before the election.

In the 2024 election campaign, Labor has taken the approach of avoiding Brexit altogether in a bid to avoid reopening old wounds associated with the debate; this was a strategy that was widely criticized despite the party’s landslide victory.

Meanwhile, polling guru Sir John Curtice said openly pushing for closer ties with the EU would bring risks – some voters may be concerned about trade-offs such as agreeing to some EU laws – and said Labor “should be able to persuade the majority of their supporters that it is a good idea” if they are “willing to discuss it in a way that they have not been willing to do so far”.

Sir John said Independent: “Efforts by Labor and the Liberal Democrats to repeal this law in the last Parliament were largely not successful.”

He added: “Everyone wants to get rid of customs checks… but of course we won’t get the absence of customs checks for free.”

Referring to closer alignment with the EU, Sir John said: “Given the balance of public opinion on Brexit and as long as they can win the framing argument… then perhaps they can persuade the majority of the public and they should certainly be able to persuade the majority of their supporters that it is a good idea. But there is work to be done.”

“They’re going to have to be willing to discuss this in a way that they haven’t been willing to do so far,” he said.

YouGov polling from July 2025 shows that 61 per cent of Britons think Brexit is more of a failure than a success, with almost two-thirds (65 per cent) now wanting to see a closer relationship with the EU.

Although a majority of Britons support a return to the EU (56 per cent), they are unlikely to believe it is a priority at the moment.

44 per cent say that attempting to rejoin would be the wrong priority for the government at the moment compared to other issues the UK currently faces, while 37 per cent believe it would be the right priority.

Meanwhile, Naomi Smith, chief executive of pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain, said:“Our comprehensive survey shows that the broadest voter support for now comes from a closer relationship with the EU, beyond membership of the Customs Union or Single Market. But public attitudes are changing rapidly.

“As Ukraine bravely defends Europe against an encroaching Russia and the affordability crisis deepens at home, with the Trump-led US emerging as an increasingly unreliable ally, more Britons are seeing our neighbors in Europe as essential partners for both economic stability and collective security.”

As part of the government’s bid to win over voters, ministers are understood to hope to launch a series of initiatives in the coming months to demonstrate the tangible effects of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal on small businesses; such as a “save our garden centres” campaign aimed at highlighting how trade barriers on plants are crippling the industry – it is hoped this could be remedied by an SPS agreement.

Just weeks after Sir Keir insisted the UK must “go further” in strengthening post-Brexit ties with Brussels following the trade deal reached earlier this year, ministers are understood to be examining other possible areas of cooperation with the EU, including financial services and steel.

As ministers discuss the terms of a possible youth mobility scheme with the EU that would see tens of thousands of young British and European citizens given the right to live and work in each other’s countries, a government source said they were now open to “anything under the sun” when it comes to striking trade deals with the EU.

The new push to sell Labour’s approach to the EU comes amid growing concerns about the government’s direction, devastating approval ratings and a disintegrating economy.

The party is losing votes to Reform England, which is now around ten points ahead of Labour.