Inside Ukraine’s energy war: Is the strategy against Putin working?

Ukraine’s intensifying campaign against Putin’s oil industry is taking a growing toll on Russia, forcing one of the world’s biggest energy producers to restrict diesel exports, continue fuel imports and confront shortages stretching from occupied Crimea to cities deep within the country.

The consequences of this are becoming increasingly visible in Russia. Former Russian opposition politician and commentator Maxim Katz said the shortages represented one of the first direct ways in which many Russians experienced the consequences of war and could become particularly sensitive ahead of State Duma elections scheduled for September.

“This is the first time Russians are seeing that the war is having an impact on their daily lives, not just in terms of the cost of fuel, but also in terms of the availability of fuel,” Katz told Fox News Digital in a Zoom interview from Israel, where he lives in exile. “You can’t buy it. And that’s a big deal for Russia.”

WHILE MOSCOW BANNED DIESEL EXPORTS, DRONE ATTACKS HIT RUSSIAN OIL TANKERS AND REFINERIES ON AN ‘INDUSTRIAL SCALE’

Katz said Russia’s elections are neither free nor competitive, but they still serve an important function for Putin by providing popular support to regional leaders, business figures and other elites.

“If everybody sees that they have 20 percent or 10 percent support in September, then questions begin about why he should appoint governors or control the system,” Katz said. he said. “This is something he doesn’t want to deal with.”

Katz suggested that the fuel crisis threatens Putin’s efforts to portray himself as completely in control and to keep the costs of the war away from ordinary Russians.

“Putin tried to convince everyone that Moscow would continue to live its normal life and no one would see the war,” Katz said. he said. “This was his war, not the ordinary Russian’s war. But when the war comes home, it’s a completely different story and changes the equation.”

Katz also noted a striking reversal in Russia’s search for fuel supplies from abroad, historically one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and refined products. Reuters reported that Moscow turned to Kazakhstan to import about 50,000 metric tons of gasoline after refinery outages cut Russia’s gasoline production by about 25% from the previous year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual year-end press conference in Moscow on December 19, 2024. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images)

The campaign reached a new milestone this week when Ukrainian drones attacked the Omsk refinery, Russia’s largest, about 1,700 miles from Ukrainian-held territory. The facility temporarily halted processing following the attack, according to Reuters. Days later, another strike closed Russia’s Saratov refinery for the third time this year.

The widening crisis raises a fundamental question for Ukraine and its allies: Could attacks on the infrastructure that powers Russia’s military and economy change President Vladimir Putin’s calculus, or will the Kremlin continue to protect the war effort while shifting the burden to ordinary Russians?

“They now have to buy fuel from Kazakhstan,” Katz said. “Russia is and always has been one of the largest exporters of oil and oil products. This is crazy.”

Still, Katz warned that the Kremlin will likely continue to prioritize military supplies even as civilian shortages worsen.

“He will find the fuel for the tanks. That’s not the problem,” Katz said. “The problem is his control over Russia.”

WATCH: FIGHTS BEGIN AT RUSSIA GAS STATIONS AS PUTIN ADMITS FUEL SHORTAGES

The Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya burns after being hit during a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian capital on June 18, 2026. (East2West)

The impacts are already significant, said retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, former commander of U.S. European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

“There is no doubt that Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s oil and energy infrastructure is having a real and growing impact on Russia’s homeland,” Breedlove told Fox News Digital. “Reported reductions in fuel production are significant, close to a third by some estimates.”

“These attacks are beginning to seriously impact not only the economy but also the Kremlin’s ability to sustain its war effort and military operations,” he added. “When Ukraine can strike large, high-value energy targets deep within Russian territory, that changes the equation.”

“Russia cannot effectively defend every refinery and energy facility in its vast territory, and this is Moscow’s fundamental problem,” Breedlove said. he said. “Any assets they deploy to defend their infrastructure are assets that are not deployed to the front lines.”

Moscow has already taken urgent measures. Russia banned diesel exports until the end of July as drone attacks led to unplanned refinery closures and reduced domestic supply. According to Reuters, seaborne diesel and gasoline exports fell 39% in June compared to May and 46% compared to the previous year.

RUSSIAN GENERAL’S ASSASSINATIONS REVEALED THE GROWING CRACK WITHIN PUTIN’S SECURITY DEVICE

Steam rises from the smokestacks of Gazprom Neft’s oil refinery in Omsk, Russia, November 18, 2022. (Alexey Malgavko/Reuters)

Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk said American intelligence played an important role in Kiev’s infiltration of Russia’s extensive air defense network.

“You always have to give credit to the United States,” Korniychuk told Fox News Digital. “U.S. intelligence helps Ukrainian missiles and drones evade Russia’s anti-missile defenses.”

The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, said: 2025 report “USA will provide” Ukrainian “With intelligence on long-range missile attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.” ReutersCiting the Financial Times, the newspaper also reported that “US intelligence helped Kiev attack key Russian energy assets, including oil refineries, far beyond the front line,” citing unnamed Ukrainian and US officials familiar with the campaign.

Fox News Digital reached out to the State Department and the White House to confirm the reports and the Ukrainian ambassador’s claims.

Even if they haven’t yet persuaded Putin to change course, the attacks have put serious pressure on the Russian system, Korniychuk said.

Footage shows Ukraine’s self-developed long-range “Flamingo” cruise missiles being launched during an attack on Russian military infrastructure. (East2West)

“The majority of the Russian leadership understands that this is a very important problem, but Putin personally does not understand it,” he said. “The distance between him and the rest of the Russian leadership is growing tremendously. Even people he has trusted for years understand that this is going nowhere, but that doesn’t necessarily lead Putin to the same conclusion.”

Retired Lt. Gen. Richard Newton, former deputy chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, argued that the broader strategic picture has shifted in Ukraine’s favor.

“Throughout the conflict, the vast majority of the Russian homeland became a haven,” Newton said. “But in the last few months, Ukrainian drone strikes have reached deep into Russia — recently as much as 1,500 miles.”

Newton said the pressure was coming as Western support grew stronger.

“This is a tribute to President Zelenskyy, his military leadership and Ukraine’s defense industrial base,” he said. “And this comes at the right time, with Europe now providing military capabilities and financial resources, and now with renewed public support from President Trump.”

Firefighters work at the site of a logistics center belonging to a private delivery company following Russian missile attacks in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on January 13, 2026. (Sofiya Gatilova/Reuters)

But the strategy has its limits. Russia continues to generate billions of dollars in energy revenue that is beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones.

Urgewald, an analysis of cargo data by Kpler, a Germany-based nonprofit environmental and human rights organization, found that the European Union received 114 of 118 cargoes shipped from Russia’s Yamal LNG project between January and May 2026 (about 97% of the project’s exports). The shipments totaled 8.37 million metric tons with an estimated value of approximately $5.7 billion.

“Current trends suggest that EU payments to Russian Yamal LNG will reach almost $7 billion in the first half of 2026 alone,” Alexander Kirk, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, told Fox News Digital. “These dollars support Russia’s war economy and help sustain Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, including drones and missile warfare that terrorize Ukrainian cities.”

The figures reveal the dual reality facing Kiev: Ukraine could damage refineries, disrupt domestic fuel supplies and force Moscow to divert resources; Russia, on the other hand, continues to generate significant income from global energy markets.

Amb. Korniychuk said Zelenskyy gave the military 40 days to drastically change the situation.

Katz cautioned that it was not possible to predict whether Putin’s system was approaching collapse, but said authoritarian regimes can appear stable until they unravel with extraordinary rapidity.

He compared this uncertainty to the last months of the Soviet Union.

“Before the August Coup, no one could have even thought that three months from now there would be no Soviet Union left,” Katz said. “Systems like this – this is one of their common characteristics – collapse quickly.”

For now, Ukraine’s attacks have not halted Russian military operations or forced Putin to negotiate. But they reached deep into Russia, straining the fuel system and undermining the Kremlin’s efforts to keep the war away from the public.

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Russian oil tanker was stopped between Spain and Morocco. (Etat Major des Armees)

Question asked by analysts It is no longer a question of whether Ukraine can reach Russia’s economic engine, but how long this engine and Putin’s political system can withstand constant pressure.