Iran can’t beat America outright. It can still make Trump play its game

War is not checkers. This is a game that started in India and was developed and moved to Iran; Here, “check” means the king and “checkmate” means the king is helpless. Language is important because strategy, whether in chess or war, is not just about controlling the opponent. It’s about knowing how to finish the game.

President Donald Trump has the stronger pieces, and Tehran knows it. Therefore, Iran is not trying to comply with America’s move. Washington is trying to expand the playing field before deciding how to end the game.

Tehran’s counter move

The pattern is familiar now. Trump is hitting Iran’s military targets. Iran cracks down on commercial shipping. Trump is tightening the naval noose. Iran threatens new energy routes. Every American move is met not by countering American firepower but by shifting pressure elsewhere: at sea, in the oil markets, in Gulf capitals, and in Washington’s political debates.

US Central Command has confirmed a new wave of attacks on Iran’s coastal defenses and missile sites as part of an effort to reimpose a naval blockade of Iranian ports and reduce Tehran’s ability to threaten Hormuz ships. Iran responded with attacks on U.S.-affiliated targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and with cruise missile strikes that killed and injured sailors on tankers in the strait. Tehran is trying to ensure that every American attack creates a bigger problem.

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This is not simply retaliation. This is a counter move and Iran has used this approach before.

The lesson of the Tanker War

During the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), Tehran helped turn the Persian Gulf into a battlefield in what became known as the Tanker War. The U.S. Navy launched Operation Earnest Will to escort reflagged Kuwaiti tankers across the Gulf. In April 1988, the frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts struck an Iranian mine during this mission. Four days later, the Navy responded with Operation Praying Mantis, which sank or damaged a significant portion of Iran’s operational navy in a single day.

Iran could not defeat the US Navy. He learned something else: mines, tankers, shipping lanes, and concern for oil could force a much more powerful power to defend much more than a single waterway. This habit has not changed.

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A second crossing point

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central square of today’s map. The US Energy Information Administration reported that oil flows from Hormuz will average 20 million barrels per day in 2024, about one-fifth of global oil consumption.

But Hormuz may no longer be the entire board. Reuters reported that Iran has signaled that it could risk the second vital energy artery by threatening the Bab al-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea, using its Houthi allies in Yemen. Closing Bab al-Mandeb would force tankers into South Africa and add time and cost to global energy shipments.

A single crossing point crisis is dangerous. A crisis with two choke points is becoming a test of America’s staying power.

Fare error

Washington also presented Tehran with an argument it did not deserve. Trump demanded a 20 percent fee for shipping through Hormuz, then abandoned the idea a day later, saying no one could charge such a fee. The legal problem was obvious. The UN’s International Maritime Organization said there was no legal basis for mandatory tolls in an international strait under transit rules.

While briefly weighing its own toll, America cannot credibly tell Iran that it has no right to pay tolls on an international waterway. Even if he withdrew the offer, it was a simple mistake.

Iran could not defeat the US Navy. He learned something else: mines, tankers, shipping lanes, and concern for oil could force a much more powerful power to defend much more than a single waterway. This habit has not changed.

Stamina bet

The greater danger is that repetition replaces strategy. Axios reported that Trump held a Situation Room meeting to weigh a broader attack than the current ones near Hormuz, and that Trump made clear that attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges could come if Tehran does not return to the table.

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Force works when it narrows the enemy’s options. It fails when it multiplies America’s obligations. Tehran claims that every American attack, threat and extended blockade will look like progress and add yet another place for Washington to defend.

What Trump should do now

Trump should reject this claim. Three disciplines would help him do this.

First of all, stop making maritime policy public. A major maritime policy should not be shared on social media without establishing a legal basis, allied support and implementation mechanisms.

Second, name the war America is actually fighting. Is this a limited retaliation, a maritime security operation, coercive nuclear diplomacy, or an effort to dismantle Iran’s coercive infrastructure? Each answer requires different goals, different boundaries, and a different explanation to the American people.

Third, use force to narrow the war, not expand it, on Tehran’s terms. Instead of increasing Washington’s burden, American power should reduce Iran’s options.

Tanker War offers a warning. What started as a limited escort mission turned into a test of national will, alliance management and escalation discipline. Washington cannot afford timidity. He also cannot afford to be careless.

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Iran cannot defeat the United States directly, nor does it need to. His strategy is to expand the bar, increase the cost, and survive long enough to consider endurance a kind of victory.

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Trump holds the stronger pieces. It has taken control of Iran more than once this year. But check is not checkmate. A regime under pressure can still escape, counterattack, and drag the war into a more costly configuration if its opponent mistakes action for strategy.

Trump has the pieces to prevail. What it needs now is the discipline to prevent Tehran from choosing the next arena.

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