Iran is not another Venezuela, Trump has found to great cost
The US-Israeli campaign achieved a dramatic goal. Iran’s religious leader Ali Khamenei was killed by a joint attack on the first day of the beheading attack targeting the country’s senior leadership. However, the political and military results did not develop as the Trump administration expected. Iran’s regime remains largely intact, conflict has spread across the region and global energy markets have been thrown into turmoil.
With the United States at risk of heavy losses and the regional energy infrastructure at the mercy of a menacing Iran, the Iranian campaign is proving to be much more complex and dangerous than the blitzkrieg in Venezuela that Trump hopes to repeat.
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“Venezuelan model”
The comparison with Venezuela didn’t just appear in Trump’s public statements. Analysts and officials cited by Reuters recently claimed that some in the administration believe the Iran campaign could follow a similar trajectory. In Venezuela at the beginning of the year, US special forces quickly captured President Nicolás Maduro and facilitated the installation of a US-backed leadership, securing Washington’s influence over the country’s oil resources without a protracted conflict. Reuters noted that some analysts believe the White House expects a similar collapse of Iran’s leadership once the regime’s top figures are eliminated.
This expectation seems to have shaped early strategic thinking. Trump suggested that Washington could influence the country’s political transition, stating that it could play a role in choosing Iran’s next leader after the war. But Iran’s political structure turned out to be much less vulnerable to sudden collapse.Also Read | Donald Trump has never been a planner, and that’s deadly
He failed to break the decapitation regime
The US-Israeli attacks were militarily important. In the February 28 operation, Khamenei and many high-ranking officials were killed in Tehran. However, the expected political shockwave in Iran never materialized. Rather than creating a leadership vacuum, the Iranian establishment quickly turned to consolidating power. The slain leader’s hard-line son, Mojtaba Khamenei, replaced him as religious leader, ensuring the continuity of the regime.
The political system turned out to be more resilient than expected. Even after the killing of senior leaders and massive military damage, Iran managed to coordinate military interventions and maintain control over the country.
A few days ago, CNN reported an intelligence assessment that said the Iranian regime was still intact. Despite the deaths of several senior figures and heavy attacks on Iranian infrastructure, the regime’s core structures remain largely intact, according to US officials cited by CNN. The expected collapse of the ruling system did not occur.
In this sense, the beheading strategy, which was very effective in Venezuela, did not produce the same political result in Iran.
The uprising that never came
Another assumption that seemed to shape the strategy was the expectation that ordinary Iranians might rise up against the regime if its leadership weakened. This also happened to some extent in Venezuela. This scenario did not happen either. Contrary to the hopes of some policymakers, the strikes were not followed by large-scale protests against the government.
The belief that Iran’s leadership could be overthrown through internal rebellion has so far not been confirmed. Instead, the country’s political institutions and security apparatus have largely held together, allowing the new leadership to maintain its authority even under constant military pressure.
For analysts monitoring the conflict, this reflects a deeper difference between the two countries. Venezuela’s political system was already fragmented when the United States intervened, whereas Iran’s security state and ideological institutions proved much more cohesive.
A regional war rather than a quick victory
The strategic consequences of the conflict also turned out to be much broader than management had anticipated. Rather than remaining a controlled operation, the war quickly turned into a regional conflict. Iran has launched missile and drone attacks throughout the Gulf, including attacks on Bahrain, where the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is based. A Reuters analysis warned that the conflict now risks escalating into a “complex and potentially protracted military campaign” with ramifications far beyond Iran.
This expanded battlefield marks another stark difference from Venezuela, where U.S. forces pose little risk of regional tensions.
Strait of Hormuz shock
Perhaps the most serious miscalculation concerns the global energy system. Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally flows. CNN reported that US officials underestimated the possibility that Iran would attempt to close the strait in response to the attacks. The move shook global markets and forced Washington to look for ways to stabilize energy supplies.
The economic consequences were immediate. Oil prices have risen above $100 a barrel and analysts warn that if the crisis continues, the disruption could be the biggest supply shock in the history of oil markets. This global ripple effect underscores once again how the Iran conflict is different from Venezuela, where geopolitical influences are limited.
A war increasingly beyond Washington’s control
Two weeks into the conflict, another disturbing truth is emerging for the White House: The course of the war may no longer be entirely in the hands of the United States. Iran’s retaliatory capabilities in the region, including missiles, drones, naval mines, and proxy forces, allow events to escalate in ways Washington cannot easily control. At the same time, diplomatic pressure is mounting as allies worry about the economic and security consequences of a protracted conflict.
Reuters notes that the widening crisis now threatens regional stability and the global economy, raising the possibility that the war will last much longer than initially anticipated. Reportedly, even within US strategic circles, questions are being raised about whether the political and diplomatic endgame was adequately considered before the attacks began.
According to one CNN commentator: “Iran has turned this into an endurance test in 13 days and appears to be surviving. The US can bomb for months, but not without depleting vital munitions stockpiles and risking both greater political damage ahead of November’s midterm elections and further US losses. Iran will continue to lose its launchers, drone bases, personnel and infrastructure, but enough will survive that its forces will never have to stop and kneel. Leaders of the Revolutionary Guard have been for years.” “They are preparing for this moment, they may run out of bombs, drones and even people, but that’s not their motivation.”
“This isn’t the ‘Forever War’ for now, though. It’s been 13 days. It’s more likely that quiet diplomacy or sheer exhaustion will reduce the violence in the coming weeks and both sides will be able to claim victory.”
