Iran war could cost US taxpayer $1 trillion, says Harvard academic
Source: US Navy | Flickr
The Iran war could cost US taxpayers much more than official figures suggest, according to an analysis by a Harvard academic.
In the Pentagon’s briefing to Congress, it was stated that the cost of the first 6 days of the joint US-Israeli operation against the Islamic Republic, which started on February 28, reached 11.3 billion dollars.
Although a fragile ceasefire still exists, efforts to reach a permanent solution have so far proven elusive; US forces began blockading Iranian ports on Monday after peace talks collapsed over the weekend.
“I’m confident we’ll get to $1 trillion for the Iran war.” Professor Linda Bilmes, a public policy expert at the Harvard Kennedy School, said in an internal interview.
His research, published two days before the temporary ceasefire on April 8, revealed several reasons why this military operation could have disastrous future consequences on the US national debt.
He estimates short-term upfront costs will be around $2 billion per day during 40 days of live combat. This includes ammunition, troop prices and damage to military assets, such as the downing of three F-15 fighter jets due to friendly fire from Kuwait.
Bilmes believes short-term costs are higher than they appear on paper; The Pentagon reports figures based on the historical value of the inventory rather than the actual price of replacing these assets today (which is often much higher).
“These gaps are one reason why the reported $11.3 billion is closer to $16 billion and reflect the persistent gap between what the Pentagon is reporting in real time and what the war actually costs,” he said.
Bilmes added that large multi-year contracts with Lockheed Martin and Boeing for interceptors and missiles mean the cost of supplies to the United States is much higher ($4 million per interceptor) than the cost of drones fired from Iran, which can be produced for just $30,000 each.
down the road
In the long run, the cost of war is further increased by the rebuilding of facilities and inventory, which damages not only US military assets in the region but also the infrastructure of its allies in the Gulf.
Add in the cost of potential lifetime disability benefits for the approximately 55,000 soldiers serving in the region and exposed to toxins and environmental hazards, and it puts even more pressure on taxpayers.
Meanwhile, the White House has asked Congress to increase the US defense budget to $1.5 trillion; This represents the largest increase in military spending since World War II.
And that figure doesn’t include the $200 billion the Pentagon wants earmarked for the war in Iran.
“Even if Congress does not agree to approve the full increase, it is highly likely that at least $100 billion a year will be added to the base defense budget that would not have been approved if this war had not occurred,” Bilmes said. he said.
Such spending would place a heavy burden on the spiraling U.S. fiscal deficit.
Compared to the Iraq war, which cost a total of $2 trillion, the public’s debt at that time was less than $4 trillion. Today, that figure is over $31 trillion, according to Bilmes, and much of it stems from the previous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“We are borrowing at higher rates, in addition to a much larger debt base, to finance this war,” he added.
“As a result, interest costs alone will add billions of dollars to the total cost of this war. And unlike upfront costs, these are clearly costs we pass on to future generations.”
