Iran’s military options limited as it tries to hit back at US-Israeli attack | US-Israel war on Iran

In the cruel reckoning of the war, Iran now has to hope for luck. The first hours of the joint US-Israeli offensive were disastrous for the Iranian regime: Supreme leader Ali Khamenei is believed to have been killed, along with the defense minister, the head of the armed forces and the head of the powerful Revolutionary Guard.

Iran knew its security apparatus had been compromised during the 12-day war in June 2025, in which Israel killed a number of senior military commanders. During street protests in January, Khamenei was taken to a secure location for his own safety, but on Saturday he felt safe enough to hold a security meeting at his compound in Tehran.

The CIA had noticed the fact of the meeting in advance and passed its intelligence on to the Israelis. A handful of Israeli warplanes flew for nearly two hours and hit the compound with about 30 long-range missiles.

Although Khamenei has plotted his own death by providing a list of potential successors and has demanded that many of the country’s military and political leaders nominate individuals who could take over his list for up to four levels, the reality is that in such an environment of such a destabilizing and demoralizing loss of command and control, Iran’s military response will be less coherent and coordinated.

Meanwhile, waves of attacks by the US and Israel are coming at a high speed. Initial reports suggested the US carried it out 900 hits Israel claimed to have bombed in the first 12 hours of the operation 1,200 times within the first 24 hours.

“The US and Israel are prioritizing breaking Iran’s offensive capabilities and leadership,” said Matthew Savill, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. “The question is whether the Iranian regime can survive this and inflict enough pain regionally to bring this campaign to a halt.”

Iran’s military options are limited. Its strategy has been to rely on Shahid drones and high-speed ballistic missiles to defend itself through retaliation, targeting Israel, US bases, and the Middle Eastern countries where they are located. On Sunday, Oman, which mediated failed nuclear talks with the United States, became the sixth Arab country to be attacked by two drones targeting the Duqm naval base.

The volume of retaliatory attacks has been quite large so far, but in most cases it has not been very effective and is likely to decrease. Three people were reported dead in the United Arab Emirates after Iran launched 165 missiles and 541 drones into the country, according to the UAE defense ministry. While 35 of the UAVs penetrated the defenses and caused material damage, the missiles failed to do so.

Tehran’s calculation seems to be that at some point a missile or drone will move in and cause enough damage to make the Americans or Israelis reconsider, or that it will have enough missiles and drones to exhaust U.S., Israeli, and other air defenses in the region. This is an attempt to learn from Ukraine, where complex salvos of decoys, drones and missiles ultimately led to few passing.

Nine people were killed and approximately 50 injured when a missile hit a bomb shelter in Beit Shemesh, Israel; It was a serious incident, but not enough to prompt any rethinking in a country accustomed to deaths in conflict. In reality, the psychological impact of Saturday’s strike at Dubai’s Fairmont hotel may be more significant due to its impact on tourism in a country unaccustomed to being on the front lines.

Jonathan Hackett, author of a book on Iran’s covert war strategy, said Iran “has between 1,500 and 3,000 ballistic missiles of various ranges and readiness levels” but they are quickly running out. Israel counted 170 shots fired by Iran on the first day of the war.

Before the latest conflict broke out, Iran was producing several dozen bombs a month at facilities deep underground, but Israel and the United States are targeting launch sites and production sites in the current bombing campaign. It is difficult to see how ballistic missile supply could take more than a few days in volume, forcing Iran to switch to smaller and less effective Shahed and other drones.

An obvious reward for Iran would be to shoot down a US warship, again replicating Ukraine’s remarkable success against the Russian navy in the Black Sea, but this is likely to be difficult to achieve. On Sunday afternoon, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced that they had targeted the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier with four ballistic missiles, prompting a swift denial by the US military on social media. “The missiles launched did not even come close,” Central Command said.

Once upon a time, Iran could rely on regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, to attack Israel; but most of them were destroyed in previous conflicts, killed one by one by Israel after the Hamas offensive in October 2023. The most capable remaining are the Yemeni Houthis, who have vowed to continue attacks in the Red Sea as part of a broader effort to disrupt merchant shipping in the region.

Iran’s best hope in the near term is that it can prevent oil tankers from entering or exiting the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz through radio and drone attacks. At least three tankers have already been damaged, including MKD Vyom, where a crew member died after being hit by a suspected shell off the coast of Oman. The aim is to try to impose economic costs on the USA. A key moment will be how oil prices react on Monday.