Iraqi leaders face balancing act as Iran conflict exposes deep rifts | Iraq

HEWhile all countries are drawn into the US-Israeli war against Iran, it is in Iraq, which still bears the emotional and physical scars of the last time the Americans tried to reshape the region by force, that the conflict has exposed some of the deepest cracks.

The war is separating those who see attacks on Iran as a way to end Tehran’s long-standing influence over Iraqi politics from those who declare loyalty to the Islamic Republic, and is cutting off state institutions, the armed forces and Shiite Islamist parties.

Further exacerbating tensions is that the war broke out during an unstable power vacuum in Iraq after interim leader Mohammed Shiite al-Sudani, whose coalition won the largest share of seats in November’s parliamentary elections, stepped aside.

Hours after Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed at the start of the war, some factions of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella body of Iran-backed armed groups, vowed to drag the United States into a long war of attrition that would “leave no American presence in the region, especially in Iraq.”

The group has claimed responsibility for numerous drone and missile attacks on targets in Iraq and neighboring countries, such as the US base in Erbil and the city’s international airport, Camp Victoria near Baghdad’s international airport, and Basra and US oil company compounds in northern Iraq, forcing the country to suspend production at major oil fields.

In response, unclaimed airstrikes widely attributed to US and Israeli forces hit positions across the country, including Jurf al-Sakhar south of Baghdad, a stronghold of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main pro-Iran groups, as well as bases for other resistance forces in the south and north of the country; killed half a dozen commanders and many warriors.

Videos showing attack helicopters firing at checkpoints in Mosul show Iraqi army units being shot down by unknown forces in the western desert, killing one soldier and wounding three others.

In another sign that Iraq is being dragged further into war, the US embassy in Baghdad’s green zone was repeatedly attacked and on Thursday pro-Iran armed groups in Iraq were warned that they could attack other parts of the city in the coming days.

Kataib Hezbollah is also suspected of being responsible for the kidnapping of US reporter Shelly Kittleson late Tuesday.

In recent days, the frequency of attacks has decreased after Kataib Hezbollah announced a pause. But the group did not announce an extension Wednesday night when the pause period expired.

The Iraqi government has tried to follow an “Iraq first” policy, largely staying away from the post-October 7 wars that shook the region and trying to project the image that security forces are in control.

As the conflict escalates, Iraqi leaders are trying to maintain their balancing act, condemning Khamenei’s killing and offering official condolences while rejecting Tehran’s attempts to drag Iraq into the conflict, urging security forces to go after those who threaten “diplomatic missions and oil fields” and even going so far as to fire some military and intelligence officials.

But this balancing act is complicated by the fact that pro-Iran groups are also members of the PMU (Popular Mobilization Units), a sprawling institution that is in theory part of the official military and under the authority of the commander in chief, but in reality operates according to its own agenda. These groups claim the legitimacy of the resistance when attacking US targets, then condemn attacks on PMU brigade bases as attacks on Iraq’s sovereignty.

This contradiction reveals the weakness of the state, and the absurdity is not lost on Iraqis; While the US and Israel are attacking Iran, a joke goes around that while Iran is attacking Israel and the Gulf states, only Iraq is being bombed by everyone: Israel, the US, Iran and the Iraqis.

The US accused the Iraqi government of failing to prevent “terrorist attacks on or from Iraqi territory”, although Washington and Baghdad claimed they had “intensified cooperation” to prevent attacks and ensure that Iraqi territory was not used for attacks on US facilities. “Iran-linked terrorist militia groups may claim affiliation with the Iraqi government,” the US embassy said.

The Pentagon said the helicopters carried out strikes against pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq during the war. Washington has strongly denied allegations that it targeted Iraqi security forces.

Moreover, a financial disaster awaits Iraq due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of oil revenues, which constitute more than 90 percent of the country’s budget.

Even before the latest escalation, U.S. pressure and the threat of sanctions had forced some members of the pro-Iran Shiite alliance in the Iraqi parliament, known as the Coordination Framework, to distance themselves from more militant groups, fearing U.S. economic and financial sanctions that could restrict the Iraqi state’s access to the dollar. in the last twenty years.

As the United States increased its forces in the region, Coordination Framework leaders bowed to American pressure and withdrew the candidacy of former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, who was seen as close to Iran, to the top post. This followed a humiliating direct intervention by the new US envoy, Tom Barrack, and indeed Donald Trump himself, who wrote in a social media post: “The last time Maliki was in power, the country was plunged into poverty and complete chaos… Due to his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States will no longer aid Iraq.”

An aide to a senior political leader said of the Shiite alliance: “They are trying to further distance themselves from the groups after Khamenei’s killing. Some of their recent statements sound as if they were made by the head of a humanitarian NGO rather than the head of a militia whose legitimacy is based on fighting the Americans.”

M.All fighters and commanders of the resistance groups came of age following the US invasion of Iraq. At the time, Iran was pursuing a dual strategy: to exert political and economic influence among Iraq’s new rulers, many of whom spent years in exile in Tehran, and to train and equip a younger generation of men to help them fight against American occupation forces.

In the sectarian war that swept the region after the failed uprisings of the Arab Spring, Iran gathered its allies and all the forces it had trained over the previous decades: young Afghan men whose fathers had fought in Iran’s wars, Iraqi militias whose commanders broke away from larger and older Shiite organizations to form resistance groups, Houthis in Yemen and, most importantly, Hezbollah, which played an important role in developing military capacities. from these various forces.

While the majority of these forces are Shiite, not all of them have pledged religious allegiance to Khamenei. While some shared Tehran’s goal of driving foreign forces from the region, others sought Iran’s support in their local wars against jihadists, western-backed militias or, in the case of Yemen, the Saudi-Emirati coalition. A few were opportunistic mercenaries roaming the war-torn region. These forces are collectively known as the “axis of resistance.”

The Axis suffered its most serious defeat after the October 7 attacks, in which Israeli jets dropped more than 80 large bunker-busting bombs on residential blocks in Beirut’s densely populated southern suburbs, killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and several senior commanders.

“The killing of Sayed Hassan Nasrallah affected the Iraqi resistance groups more than Sayed al-Khamenei,” said a person close to pro-Iran groups. “Yes, Sayed al-Khamenei is the leader, but Sayed Hassan had direct appeal to many commanders. He and Hezbollah combined fighting prowess with a rhetoric and political vision. This is sorely lacking for Iraqi groups.”

The insider added: “That’s why when you look at their activities on the ground right now, you’ll see that it’s just a reaction. They have no local Iraq strategy, they have no political depth. They are following events, and they will stop when the attacks on Iran stop.”

But he added that the impact of the latest war goes far beyond the resistance groups’ drones. The killing of a prominent Shiite leader and subsequent assassinations in Iraq and elsewhere shook the country’s streets, especially in the south, where mass demonstrations broke out spontaneously after Khamenei’s killing.

The United States and its air forces have been striking Iraqi cities for more than 30 years, sometimes frequently, often continuously, since the first wave of long-range bombers lit up the skies over Baghdad with explosions in the opening hours of the Gulf war in 1991.

The images from Iran, then, are all too familiar to Iraqis: people walking through debris-strewn streets surveying the previous day’s destruction, searching for food, checking in on loved ones; Families were huddled in their homes, listening to the explosions and the rattling of windows not far away. Mothers crying for their dead children. Anxiety, fear, huge fireballs rising into the sky. Even the black acid rain that followed the burning of huge fuel tanks had repercussions in Iraq.

Ghaith Abdul-Ahad reports on Iraq Guardian since the US-led invasion In 2003, the country