Jet fuel shortage could disrupt summer travel in Asia and Europe
Jet fuel shortages threaten to disrupt summer travel as the loss of supplies from the Middle East spreads to Asia and Europe.
Exports from the Persian Gulf represented the single largest source of jet fuel supplies to the global market before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. International Energy Agency.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz also cut jet fuel exports from the world. Europe is directly affected because the continent was the largest importer of the Middle East’s fuel supply. About 20% of the continent’s jet fuel came from the Gulf, according to the IEA.
Another important source of jet fuel exports to world markets are refineries in China, South Korea and India. However, these refineries are heavily dependent on crude oil from the Middle East. Before the war, approximately 90 percent of the oil exported from the Gulf through the Bosphorus was going to Asia.
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, said refineries in Asia are having difficulty meeting domestic and international demand for jet fuel due to the loss of crude oil stocks.
“This is a slow-motion car crash,” Smith told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “We’re kind of sleepwalking.”
According to data from Kpler, global jet fuel exports decreased by 30% to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, from 1.9 million barrels per day in the same month last year. Jet fuel loaded onto tankers fell 50% last week to 18.6 million barrels, down from 37.8 million barrels in the same week in 2025, the data showed.
“Jet is incredibly short” Valero Energy Chief Operating Officer Gary Simmons updated investors on the refinery’s April 30 earnings release. Valero is one of the largest independent refiners in the United States
Warnings in Europe
The European trade group Airports Council International warned the 27-nation economic union in an April 9 letter that the European Union would face “systemic jet fuel shortages” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
Rising jet fuel prices have already forced major airlines to cut flights. Lufthansa, one of Europe’s largest airlines, made cuts 20,000 short-haul flights through October, partly due to fuel costs.
According to the report, jet fuel prices in Europe doubled last year to $187 per barrel. International Air Transport Association.
European Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas told reporters at a press conference at the time that as of April 21 there was “no evidence of a real shortage in Europe” but that commercial jet fuel stocks were under pressure.
In its letter dated April 9, the airports association warned that Europe would face fuel shortages if exports via the Strait of Hormuz did not resume “significantly and steadily” within three weeks. Oil flows did not return to normal in April and are unlikely to return to normal that quickly even if the conflict ends.
“It will take weeks and possibly months.” Strip CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles on Monday.
Wirth said the strait needs to be checked for mines and this will take time. He said hundreds of ships would need to leave the Gulf and be redeployed around the world to normalize supply chains.
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Wirth told CNBC that fuel shortages will become a growing concern over the next few weeks. “Price signals in some of these places have been quite extreme and they’re actually facing a supply concern right now,” the CEO said.
Chief Financial Officer Andrew O’Brien said the market was experiencing a grace period as tankers that left the Persian Gulf just before the war reached their destinations in March and April to deliver oil and refined products. ConocoPhillipsThe third largest oil company in the USA ExxonMobil and Chevron.
That window is now over, as all pre-war shipments have arrived, O’Brien told investors on Conoco’s April 30 earnings call.
The market is also relying on commercial crude oil and refined product stocks to cushion the impact of the supply disruption, but these stocks will eventually drop to operating minimum levels, it said. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said in an interview with CNBC on Friday.
O’Brien said that the impact of the interruption in oil supply in the Middle East on the world economy will now become more evident. Some countries dependent on energy imports could face critical shortages by June or July, he said, without naming a specific country or region.
US refineries increase exports
Transport commissioner Tzitzikostas said last month that the EU was working to secure alternative supplies of jet fuel, particularly from the United States.
US refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petrol They sought to maximize jet fuel production in response to global demand. U.S. exports mostly go to Latin America, but deliveries to Europe rose more than 400% to 94,000 barrels per day in April compared with February, when the war began, according to Kpler data.
Valero increased jet fuel from the typical 26% of its total distillate production to 30% in March, said Operations Chief Simmons. The executive said the company plans to begin producing jet fuel at several refineries that do not currently produce the fuel.
Marathon Petrol It increased jet fuel production capacity by 30,000 barrels per day at its Garyville, Louisiana, refinery in March, CEO Maryann Mannen told investors on the company’s earnings call Tuesday.
The United States is more insulated from the threat of fuel shortages than Asia and Europe due to its strong domestic production. But even there, the West Coast, especially California, may face some supply challenges.
The West Coast imported 93,000 barrels of jet fuel per day in 2025, with more than 80% of that coming from South Korea, according to the Energy Information Administration. Korean refineries have lost major oil supplies from the Middle East, which could hurt exports to the U.S. West Coast.
“It’s a series of dominoes falling here,” Kpler’s Smith said. “Jet was the first to go. Asia is the first region, but it will expand all over the world and it will also expand into products.”
