JL-3 missile means China can strike the US from Chinese waters
On Monday, China tested a ballistic missile with a submarine-launched dummy warhead in South Pacific waters. The launch of the nuclear-capable missile was described as “destabilizing” by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and the Japanese government expressed “serious concern”. We expect China to test more.
Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are deployed on nuclear-powered ballistic submarines. They fly on a ballistic flight path, meaning they are launched into flight with a short burst of rocket power. They then move in a high, curved orbit under their own momentum. They differ from cruise missiles, which are operated continuously and follow a lower, straighter path.
SLBMs are highly survivable against enemy attacks, unlike ground-based ballistic missiles, which may be threatened by the United States’ advantages in space-based surveillance and precision strike capabilities. SLBMs give China the ability to massively retaliate against an enemy’s surprise, large-scale nuclear first strike. Known as the “second strike” capability, this means that even if an enemy destroys your country, society, and government with overwhelming nuclear forces, you can do the same in retaliation.
China’s official news agency, Xinhua, published a one-sentence statement saying the test was part of annual routine training. The missile was most likely the new generation missile JL-3, which China exhibited at an exhibition. Military parade in Beijing last year. It has a range of 10,000 kilometers and is a generation ahead of the JL-2, which has a range of 7,200 kilometers.
The reason for this missile modernization is that China’s submarines are not yet stealthy enough to evade detection and must remain in semi-enclosed, protected waters near China. From there, the JL-2 missile can reach Guam, Hawaii and Alaska, but cannot reach the American continent. If China’s submarines leave their relatively safe positions and sail deeper into the Pacific Ocean, they will become vulnerable to the anti-submarine forces of the United States and Australia. But a submarine armed with the longer-range JL-3 could attack the northwestern parts of the continental United States, provided it was located in the Bohai Sea in northern Chinese waters. Even then, it can’t target the US capital, Washington DC, at the far end of the continental US. To achieve this, he must sail past northeastern Japan and into the Pacific Ocean; here it becomes vulnerable once again to US and Australian anti-submarine forces.
Newer, quieter Chinese submarines may be on the way. US marine researchers claim Russia is helping Chian develop a quieter propulsion system for these boats. This cooperation and technology transfer may become even stronger if the Russian economy becomes dependent on China.
China’s last long-range missile test in the open ocean was made in September 2024. This missile landed in the sea near the Marquesas Islands in French Polynesia, 12,000 kilometers away from mainland China. It was launched from a purpose-built vehicle known as a carrier constructor launcher (TEL) located on Hainan Island, the southernmost province. Before that, the last full-orbit flight test occurred in May 1980, a lifetime ago in strategic terms.
All of these launches can be detected by US-Australian early warning systems; The Joint Defense Facility at Pine Gap in the Northern Territory controls satellites in the Space-Based Infrared System. This program aims to detect and track missiles immediately after they take off (the “boost phase”) because missiles are slower, easier to track, and easier to intercept. It searches for infrared emissions from rocket launches, providing missile warning and battlefield characterization.
China’s tests do not appear to be related to Australia’s new mutual defense agreement with Fiji. The missile development program operates based on engineering requirements rather than regional sensitivities. Other nuclear-armed states are conducting similar tests. United States for trial purposes Four unarmed Trident SLBMs from an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine near Florida in September 2025. Russia for trial purposes An SLBM in October 2025. india did Same thing in December.
Therefore, China will likely continue to test and develop its missile capability. It seems willing to bear the reputational costs associated with these launches. There will be a few more “routine” tests this decade.
Professor Clinton Fernandes is based in the Future Operations Research Group at UNSW. his last book Turbulence: Australian Foreign Policy in the Trump Era.
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Professor Clinton Fernandes is part of the University of NSW’s Future Operations Research Group, which analyzes the threats, risks and opportunities facing military forces in the future. He is a former intelligence officer in the Australian Army.
