John Curtice says Labour in severe trouble in Wales after humiliating by-election defeat
Pollster Sir John Curtice has warned Labor is in “serious trouble” in Wales after the party suffered a brutal defeat in a by-election in its home counties.
Plaid Cymru wrested the traditional Labor seat of Caerphilly from Sir Keir Starmer’s party on Friday despite a surge in UK Reform votes overnight.
Labor’s third place result marks the first time the party has lost votes in the former mining town in more than a century.
Labor has run the Welsh parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999, and Caerphilly is one of its strongholds.
But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government are campaigning fiercely in the South Wales constituency, with many seeing this week’s by-election as a precursor to next May’s Senedd elections.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Sir John said: “Labour’s vote share was just 11 per cent. It is down 35 points. This is the biggest fall Labor has ever had in a by-election in Wales. Labor is in serious trouble in Wales.”
He added: “This shows that Plaid is now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister.
“Reform will be disappointed to come in second place with 36 per cent, but I don’t think we should shy away from the idea that this in any way signals that Nigel Farage’s bubble has burst.”
Sir John said Reform UK’s result was “fairly consistent” with the way Mr Farage’s party polled generally.
“It’s just not going to be strong enough to win the election if you’re up against a strong alternative, which in this case was Plaid, whereas of course that wasn’t the case in the county council elections earlier this year.”
Lindsay Whittle, a long-serving councilor for the Penyrheol ward and leader of the Caerphilly Council group, won the seat with 47.38 per cent of the vote; this was a lead of almost 27 per cent for Labor.
In second place was Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell with 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labor Party’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third with just 11 per cent.
The result will also be seen as a disappointment for Reform UK, which voted ahead and hoped to win its first seat at the polls, with Nigel Farage promising to “throw everything he has” into the campaign.
While the party’s vote share has increased significantly after receiving just 495 votes four years ago, a tactical vote to keep Reform out of office on Friday is thought to have overshadowed the party’s success in the constituency.
But the final result put Reform well ahead of Labor and raised hopes the party could unseat Sir Keir’s party at the next election.
The election was the first time in history that turnout in a Senedd by-election exceeded 50 percent.
The result will embolden Plaid’s efforts to enter government in Wales next year and be a bitter blow for Labor, which has held the seat since the Senedd was first formed.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the result showed the people of Caerphilly had chosen “hope over division and progress over the tired status quo”.
“This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative. We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party that can stop billionaire-backed Reformation and deliver a better future for everyone,” he said.
Meanwhile, Mr Whittle said: “Tonight’s outcome shows what is possible when people come together to support practical solutions and protect the things that matter most.
“We beat the billionaire-backed Reformation and with the same determination we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”
Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, an increase of almost 19 per cent on the 2021 result in the constituency and represents an almost 27 per cent swing from Labour.
Mr Powell received 12,113 votes, while Labour’s Mr Tunnicliffe received 3,713 votes, down from 13,289 votes in 2021, when turnout was lower.
As Labor reels from the Caerphilly byelection results, a survey by Techne UK has found that the rise of the Green Party is hurting Labour.
Techne’s first poll in a month – the first since the Greens elected Zack Polanski as leader – shows the party up three points to 12 per cent, while Labor fell below 20 per cent for the first time in the Techne poll, falling to 19 per cent.
Reform gets 29 per cent, the Conservatives 18 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 16 per cent. Meanwhile, less than 1 in 5 (19 percent) express any level of trust in the government.
